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Mesoscale Discussion 91
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0091
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1242 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...VA...SE WV

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 121842Z - 130045Z

   SUMMARY...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
   AFTERNOON FROM SERN WV EWD ACROSS MUCH OF VA. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1
   INCH PER HOUR WILL BECOME COMMON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
   IN THE MS VALLEY WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SRN
   APPALACHIAN MTNS SEWD ACROSS SC. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS LOCATED
   JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IN A BROAD ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION FROM
   ERN GA NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS. MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT ALONG THIS ZONE WILL MOVE NWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BECOME
   INCREASINGLY ENHANCED ACROSS NRN NC AND VA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
   WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS VA AND
   SERN WV LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE 18Z SOUNDING FROM GREENSBORO NC
   SHOULD BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AIRMASS IN VA...SHOWING THE PRIMARY
   ZONE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH BETWEEN 700 AND 500 MB. AS MOISTENING
   CONTINUES TO OCCUR BELOW 850 MB...AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER SHOULD BE
   FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR COMMON.
   LOCALLY HIGHER RATES COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE ORGANIZED BANDING.

   ..BROYLES.. 02/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...

   LAT...LON   36588077 36738135 37038142 37408123 37728090 38058022
               38307929 38467861 38487797 38387749 38137721 37727700
               37187685 36697696 36587770 36588077 

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Page last modified: February 13, 2014
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