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Mesoscale Discussion 92
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0092
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0224 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS / N-CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 230824Z - 231300Z

   SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE/RATE LATE
   TONIGHT FROM PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND TX LOW ROLLING
   PLAINS EWD TOWARDS THE DFW METROPLEX.  A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF
   SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED AND P-TYPE FAVORING SLEET WILL
   BECOME MORE PROBABLE ACROSS WRN N-CNTRL TX TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING
   HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AT 0820Z SHOWS A GRADUAL BLOSSOMING OF
   CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND TX LOW
   ROLLING PLAINS.  A FEW LIGHTNING FLASHES HAVE BEEN DETECTED WITH
   SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY AND THIS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE AS WEAK
   ELEVATED BUOYANCY NOTED ON THE 23/00Z FWD RAOB WILL SUPPORT
   CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/TSTMS.  SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS TEMPS RANGING FROM
   NEAR 20 DEG F WEST TO AROUND 30 NEAR I-35 RESULTING IN FROZEN
   PRECIPITATION.

   SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE UNDERESTIMATED EITHER 1)
   TROPOSPHERIC DEPTH OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR IN THE H8-H65 LAYER OR 2)
   TOO AGGRESSIVELY CHANGED P-TYPE TO SLEET ACROSS THIS REGION COMPARED
   TO OBSERVATIONS IN THE 07-08Z TIMEFRAME.  MODELS SHOW UPWARD
   VERTICAL MOTION INCREASING ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH 12Z AS THE
   WARM LAYER NEAR H7 SATURATES/COOLS.  AS THIS OCCURS OVER THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS...PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND
   FREEZING RAIN RATES AROUND 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOURS PROBABLE ARE IN
   AREAS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET
   TRANSITION WILL PROBABLY OCCUR OVER AT LEAST THE NWRN HALF OF THE
   DISCUSSION AREA BY EARLY MORNING AS THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR
   INCREASES BELOW THE MELTING LAYER ALOFT.

   ..SMITH.. 02/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31739924 31850036 32450105 33270096 33660035 33639715
               33299648 32809638 32299678 31739924 

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Page last modified: February 23, 2015
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