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Mesoscale Discussion 94
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0094
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0529 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

   Areas of southern/eastern Arkansas and adjacent
   portions of the lower Mississippi Valley

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 4...

   Valid 242329Z - 250100Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 4 continues.

   SUMMARY...At least some severe weather potential will continue
   across the lower Mississippi Valley, to the south of Tornado Watch
   5, this evening.  However, this potential appears to be in the
   process of becoming more marginal, with coverage uncertain.  It is
   not yet clear that another watch will be issued as Tornado Watch 4
   expires at 00Z.

   DISCUSSION...The 50-70 kt southerly 850 mb jet across eastern
   Arkansas into southeastern Missouri is forecast to veer to
   southwesterly while shifting east of the Mississippi River during
   the next few hours.  This is expected to occur as stronger mid/upper
   forcing for ascent generally pivots across and north/east of the
   middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys.  As this occurs, severe
   weather potential to the south of Tornado Watch 5 seems likely to
   become increasingly marginal due to increasing mid-level
   inhibition(supported by current trends).  However, it may not be
   completely negligible across and just east of the lower Mississippi
   valley through at least the 00-03Z time frame, in the presence of a
   boundary layer characterized by fairly high moisture content and at
   least weak conditional instability.  Deep layer and low-level wind
   fields/shear may remain strong enough to maintain an isolated
   tornado/damaging wind risk.

   ..Kerr.. 02/24/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33009268 33869189 34519153 35119006 35458789 34438723
               32738807 31368955 30739103 30589215 31149535 33009268 

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