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Mesoscale Discussion 98
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0098
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1117 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA TO THE NYC METRO AREA

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 130517Z - 131015Z

   SUMMARY...A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST MEGALOPOLIS FROM WASHINGTON DC TO NEW YORK
   CITY THROUGH 12Z. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 IN/HR WILL BE LIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND LOCAL STORM REPORTS CONFIRM
   MULTIPLE HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAVE BEEN CENTERED ACROSS
   SWRN INTO CNTRL VA AND FAR SRN WV. THIS CORRIDOR WILL SHIFT NEWD
   THIS MORNING AS AN ARC OF INTENSE LOW-LEVEL WAA IS SHUNTED
   DOWNSTREAM OF CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING NEAR THE ERN NC COAST. 21Z SREF
   GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE 00Z NAM AND WRF-NSSL/NMM SUGGEST THE MOST
   PERSISTENT BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL LARGELY OVERSPREAD THE
   MEGALOPOLIS THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY LIE JUST NW OF
   THE TRANSITIONAL CORRIDOR TO RAIN ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL
   PLAIN. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL FIRST INCLUDE THE
   WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE METRO AREAS SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. FARTHER
   NE...ADVECTION AND LIFT WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN FULL SATURATION OF
   A VERY DRY 850-500 MB LAYER SAMPLED BY THE 00Z OKX/CHH RAOBS. WHILE
   LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING FOR SEVERAL HOURS...HEAVIER SNOW RATES
   WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO THE PHILADELPHIA AND NEW YORK CITY
   METRO AREAS BETWEEN 09-12Z.

   ..GRAMS.. 02/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   40837484 41057415 41087378 40887341 40697334 39867433
               38997582 38037782 37717875 37947920 38647894 39557782
               40217641 40667535 40837484 

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Page last modified: February 13, 2014
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