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Mesoscale Discussion 100
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0100
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0852 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF VA AND SRN MD

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 151452Z - 151845Z

   SUMMARY...A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL
   CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA AND SOUTHERN MD INTO THE AFTERNOON
   HOURS. THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH
   QUICKLY...WHILE SNOW WILL REMAIN MORE COMMON ACROSS THE HIGHER
   ELEVATIONS OF FAR WESTERN VA. FREEZING RAIN RATES OF SEVERAL
   HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE.

   DISCUSSION...POLARIMETRIC RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MELTING LAYER
   AROUND 5000 FT AGL RAPIDLY ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF
   EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. FARTHER WEST...THIS LINE IS ONLY MAKING SLOWER
   ADVANCES N/NW...WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE VA/WV BORDER
   REMAINING AS SNOW. THIS EXPANSIVE AREA OF PCPN IS BEING AIDED BY WAA
   CENTERED AROUND 850 MB...AS RECENT AKQ VWP DATA CONFIRM STRONG
   VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOWEST 2 KM. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
   THIS MIXED PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD...LIKELY
   CHARACTERIZED BY A QUICK TRANSITION TO SLEET AND THEN FREEZING RAIN
   AS THE WARM NOSE ALOFT DEEPENS OVERHEAD. INDEED...CC/ZDR DATA
   DISPLAY A DOWNWARD-DESCENDING MELTING LAYER ON THE NORTH EDGE OF THE
   WARM NOSE /KFVX E-NEWD TO KMFV AS OF 1430Z/...SUGGESTIVE OF A NARROW
   ZONE OF ICE-PELLET POTENTIAL. THEREAFTER...A TRANSITION TO FREEZING
   RAIN IS ANTICIPATED...WITH FREEZING RAIN RATES OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS
   OF AN INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE.

   ..PICCA.. 02/15/2016


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

   LAT...LON   36678063 37628021 38147964 38477750 38377552 38037530
               37227599 36667704 36587895 36568014 36678063 

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Page last modified: February 15, 2016
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