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Mesoscale Discussion 100
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0100
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0751 AM CST THU FEB 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN SC/NC PIEDMONT TO SOUTHERN VA

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 131351Z - 131845Z

   SUMMARY...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS
   NORTH-CENTRAL SC AND WESTERN/NORTHERN PARTS OF THE NC PIEDMONT INTO
   SOUTHERN VA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW RATES COULD
   LOCALLY REACH 1 IN/HR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
   EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.

   DISCUSSION...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE REGION...A
   SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE NC OUTER BANKS/OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST
   VA AS OF 13Z. APPROXIMATELY 300 MILES WEST OF THIS SURFACE
   LOW...EARLY-MID MORNING OBSERVATIONAL SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS APPEAR
   TO SUBSTANTIATE SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE PROGS OF DEVELOPING/INCREASING
   PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NC. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUCH
   AS MULTI-RUNS OF THE HRRR...00Z WRF-NSSL...00Z WRF-NMM...AND 06Z NAM
   REFLECT AN AMPLE CONSENSUS OF INCREASING PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL
   ESPECIALLY BE WITHIN A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS
   NORTH-CENTRAL SC AND WESTERN/NORTHERN PARTS OF THE NC PIEDMONT INTO
   SOUTHERN VA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

   WHILE THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM GREENSBORO NC SAMPLED A FULL
   MELTING-CONDUCIVE LAYER BETWEEN 750-880 MB...STEADY COOLING SHOULD
   OCCUR IN THE MID-LEVEL COLUMN /SIMILAR TO THE 12Z ROANOKE VA
   OBSERVED SOUNDING/ OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. EXPECT INCREASING
   UVV/SATURATED VERTICAL PROFILES TO SUPPORT A TREND OF INCREASING
   SNOW RATES. FURTHERMORE...AS PER THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER DRY SLOT
   AS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THE AFOREMENTIONED 12Z UPPER AIR
   SOUNDINGS SAMPLED A PLUME OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   WITH NEARLY 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE BASED ABOVE 700 MB. IN FACT...A FEW
   CLOUD-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED BETWEEN 12-13Z IN
   LINCOLN/GASTON COUNTIES OF NC. THIS WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THE
   POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SNOWFALL...WHICH COULD LOCALLY
   BOOST SNOW RATES TO NEAR/ABOVE 1 IN/HR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
   AFTERNOON.

   ..GUYER.. 02/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   35388114 36728036 37477920 37087851 35657916 34388064
               35388114 

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Page last modified: February 13, 2014
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