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Mesoscale Discussion 101
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0101
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0729 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST GA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 4...

   VALID 260129Z - 260300Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 4 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH 4 CONTINUES UNTIL 05Z. THE POTENTIAL FOR
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR A TORNADO OR TWO ARE EXPECTED TO
   MODESTLY INCREASE/DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS /THROUGH 03-04Z OR 10-11 PM EST/ ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
   THE FL PANHANDLE/FAR SOUTHWEST GA.

   DISCUSSION...A MODESTLY MOIST MARITIME AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
   GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE EARLY THIS EVENING IN
   ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING/NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING SURFACE LOW /999 MB/
   THAT IS LOCATED NEAR TALLAHASSEE FL AS OF 01Z. LOWER/SOME MIDDLE 60S
   F SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE NOW MOVED INLAND ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF
   THE FL PANHANDLE...AND THIS SAME GENERAL NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
   MOISTURE FLUX WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
   ADDITIONAL PARTS OF NORTH FL/FAR SOUTHERN GA.

   AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-SOUTH
   CONTINUES TO QUICKLY APPROACH THE REGION...VERTICAL SHEAR IS AND
   WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG. THE 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM TALLAHASSEE
   AND LATEST WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM KTLH SHOWS A LONG/CURVING LOW-LEVEL
   HODOGRAPH WITH EXTREME /500+ M2 PER S2/ 0-1 KM SRH AND AROUND 80 KT
   OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THAT SAID...THE RELATIVE MARGINALITY/NARROWNESS
   OF THE INLAND MOISTURE FLUX THIS EVENING...AND RELATED WEAK BUOYANCY
   WITHIN A MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...IS LIKELY TO BE
   AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE CERTAIN/WIDESPREAD SEVERE
   RISK. NONETHELESS...THE SCENARIO SHOULD SUPPORT A COMBINATION OF
   INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED/PREVALENT SMALL-SCALE BOWS IN ADDITION TO
   FAST-MOVING/TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF
   TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.

   ..GUYER.. 02/26/2015


   ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   31018434 31078359 30528269 29688302 29378340 29808492
               30258564 31018434 

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Page last modified: February 26, 2015
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