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Mesoscale Discussion 101
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0101
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1150 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE...SRN AND CNTRL
   MS AND SE LA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 14...

   VALID 151750Z - 151945Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 14 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR WIND
   DAMAGE WILL SPREAD EWD FROM SCNTRL MS INTO SRN AND CNTRL AL AND THE
   WRN FL PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
   TO THE EAST OF WW 14.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1007 MB LOW NEAR JACKSON MS
   JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS SSWWD FROM THE SFC
   LOW INTO SRN LA WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ALONG
   THE SFC TROUGH. A THERMAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS TO THE EAST OF THE SFC
   LOW INTO CNTRL AL. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
   ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S F AND MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED BY
   MESOSCALE ANALYSIS IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE. IN
   ADDITION...STRONGLY ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG A
   CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS FAR SRN MS INTO SRN AL. THE
   AXIS OF A 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS ANALYZED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR.
   THE MOBILE WSR-88D VWP IS SAMPLING THE LOW-LEVEL JET WELL WITH A
   LOOPED HODOGRAPH AND 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 475 TO 500
   M2/S2. AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE EARLY THIS
   AFTERNOON...THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES. TORNADIC STORMS MAY BE
   MOST FAVORABLE ALONG THE CONFLUENCE ZONE IN SRN MS AND SRN AL AND
   ALSO ALONG THE THERMAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SCNTRL AL. SUPERCELLS AND
   SHORT LINE SEGMENTS WILL ALSO HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE THIS
   AFTERNOON.

   ..BROYLES.. 02/15/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30388629 30448864 30248966 30299084 30669137 31329129
               31989078 32678976 32908746 32748620 32258550 31678526
               30618551 30388629 

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Page last modified: February 15, 2016
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