Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 101
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 101 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0101
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1154 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018

   Areas of central TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 010554Z - 010700Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple of stronger storms may be capable of a marginally
   severe hail threat for the next 1-2 hours.  The coverage/duration of
   the anticipated threat will preclude a severe thunderstorm watch.

   DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a couple of weak supercells within
   a broken band of convection over central TX from Mason County
   northeast into Lampasas County as of 0550Z.  Surface observations to
   the east of the storms show temperatures around 70 degrees F and
   dewpoints around 67.  It appears the RAP forecast soundings are
   accurately capturing the surface conditions and the sounding profile
   exhibits poor 0-3 km lapse rates less than 5 degrees C/km.  As a
   result, substantial CINH is present and the convection should remain
   slightly elevated in character---this notion is also supported by
   the storms being located behind the windshift.  Given the poor
   low-level lapse rates, it seems the wind damage risk will be limited
   owing to the lack of overall potential for evaporative
   cooling/momentum transport mechanisms for an isolated severe gust. 
   Therefore, marginally severe hail will likely be the risk with the
   stronger updraft pulses during the next 1-2 hours before storms

   ..Smith/Thompson.. 03/01/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   30429917 31429793 31429682 31159667 30649709 30439814

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
Page last modified: March 01, 2018
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities