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Mesoscale Discussion 101
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0101
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1154 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018

   Areas affected...parts of central TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 010554Z - 010700Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple of stronger storms may be capable of a marginally
   severe hail threat for the next 1-2 hours.  The coverage/duration of
   the anticipated threat will preclude a severe thunderstorm watch.

   DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a couple of weak supercells within
   a broken band of convection over central TX from Mason County
   northeast into Lampasas County as of 0550Z.  Surface observations to
   the east of the storms show temperatures around 70 degrees F and
   dewpoints around 67.  It appears the RAP forecast soundings are
   accurately capturing the surface conditions and the sounding profile
   exhibits poor 0-3 km lapse rates less than 5 degrees C/km.  As a
   result, substantial CINH is present and the convection should remain
   slightly elevated in character---this notion is also supported by
   the storms being located behind the windshift.  Given the poor
   low-level lapse rates, it seems the wind damage risk will be limited
   owing to the lack of overall potential for evaporative
   cooling/momentum transport mechanisms for an isolated severe gust. 
   Therefore, marginally severe hail will likely be the risk with the
   stronger updraft pulses during the next 1-2 hours before storms
   weaken.

   ..Smith/Thompson.. 03/01/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   30429917 31429793 31429682 31159667 30649709 30439814
               30429917 

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Page last modified: March 01, 2018
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