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Mesoscale Discussion 103
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0103
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0105 PM CST Thu Mar 01 2018

   Areas affected...Eastern Georgia...much of South Carolina...southern
   North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 011905Z - 012130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A line of showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to
   increase in intensity later today, with locally damaging wind gusts
   possible.

   DISCUSSION...A line of shallow convection currently extends from
   near a surface low over northwest SC southwestward along a cold
   front across central GA and into southeast AL. Ahead of this front,
   temperatures continues to rise, with mid to upper 70s extending into
   SC. Meanwhile, surface pressures continue to fall over GA and the
   Carolinas at a rate of about 2 mb/hr as the low deepens. 

   Wind profiles also continue to strengthen with the jet max aloft
   passing just to the north. VAD wind profiles show 50 kt westerly
   flow extending to below 2 km AGL, with mean wind speeds increasing
   to near 30 kt in the lowest 1 km.

   While instability profiles are weak, the interaction of the
   convection along the front with peak heating and abundant low-level
   convergence should allow for some strengthening of the activity
   along the front, possibly deepening into thunderstorms capable of
   locally damaging wind gusts. If the storms can become more robust,
   areas of low-level rotation cannot be ruled out along the line. This
   appears most probable near the secondary surface low track across
   central and northern SC and southern NC.

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 03/01/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

   LAT...LON   34748212 35058143 35197938 34917868 34167861 33777890
               33327967 33018102 32978236 33258290 33618299 34208269
               34748212 

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Page last modified: March 01, 2018
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