|Mesoscale Discussion 103|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0103
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 PM CST Thu Mar 01 2018
Areas affected...Eastern Georgia...much of South Carolina...southern
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 011905Z - 012130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A line of showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to
increase in intensity later today, with locally damaging wind gusts
DISCUSSION...A line of shallow convection currently extends from
near a surface low over northwest SC southwestward along a cold
front across central GA and into southeast AL. Ahead of this front,
temperatures continues to rise, with mid to upper 70s extending into
SC. Meanwhile, surface pressures continue to fall over GA and the
Carolinas at a rate of about 2 mb/hr as the low deepens.
Wind profiles also continue to strengthen with the jet max aloft
passing just to the north. VAD wind profiles show 50 kt westerly
flow extending to below 2 km AGL, with mean wind speeds increasing
to near 30 kt in the lowest 1 km.
While instability profiles are weak, the interaction of the
convection along the front with peak heating and abundant low-level
convergence should allow for some strengthening of the activity
along the front, possibly deepening into thunderstorms capable of
locally damaging wind gusts. If the storms can become more robust,
areas of low-level rotation cannot be ruled out along the line. This
appears most probable near the secondary surface low track across
central and northern SC and southern NC.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 34748212 35058143 35197938 34917868 34167861 33777890
33327967 33018102 32978236 33258290 33618299 34208269
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