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Mesoscale Discussion 105
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0105
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0424 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN MS...SRN AL AND WRN FL PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 14...15...

   VALID 152224Z - 160030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 14...15...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SRN AL AND THE WRN
   FL PANHANDLE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1005 MB LOW IN WRN AL WITH
   A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD ACROSS SCNTRL MS AND SE LA. A LINE OF
   THUNDERSTORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL...IS
   ONGOING JUST AHEAD OF THE LA PORTION OF THE FRONT. WIDESPREAD
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ONGOING ACROSS FAR ERN MS INTO SW AND CNTRL
   AL WHERE INSTABILITY IS VERY WEAK AND THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN
   OVERTURNED. IN SE AL AND ACROSS THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...THE
   ATMOSPHERE HAS REMAINED LARGELY UNDISTURBED AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL
   CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...A
   40 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS ANALYZED OVER SRN AL. THIS FEATURE WILL
   CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WW 15 LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALREADY IN
   PLACE. THE FORT RUCKER WSR-88D VWP SHOWS VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT
   WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES NEAR 500 M2/S2. THIS WILL BE
   FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. WIND
   DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH ROTATING STORMS AND SHORT LINE SEGMENTS.
   A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH ROTATING STORMS THAT MOVE FROM
   THE NRN GULF INLAND ACROSS WRN FL PANHANDLE.

   ..BROYLES.. 02/15/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30178728 30088835 30238861 30508879 30968871 31388836
               32078746 32128583 31278488 30238487 29908542 30238635
               30178728 

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Page last modified: February 16, 2016
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