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Mesoscale Discussion 106
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0106
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0534 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of north FL...southern GA...and extreme
   southeastern AL

   Concerning...Outlook upgrade 

   Valid 221134Z - 221300Z

   SUMMARY...The 13Z Day-1 Convective Outlook will be upgraded to High
   Risk for tornadoes -- some strong and long-track -- expected later
   today.

   DISCUSSION...Anomalously rich low-level moisture observed along the
   eastern/central Gulf Coast, combined with a maintained influx of
   steep midlevel lapse rates based on the 06Z Slidell LA sounding, and
   the approach of a powerful midlevel cyclone from the southern Great
   Plains, all suggest increasing confidence that severe thunderstorms
   capable of producing strong, long-track tornadoes will be possible
   with discrete supercell thunderstorms later today. Following
   coordination with the affected National Weather Service Weather
   Forecast Offices, an upgrade to High Risk will occur for the 13Z
   Day-1 Convective Outlook. Additional meteorological details will be
   provided within the forthcoming outlook discussion.

   ..Cohen/Thompson.. 01/22/2017


   ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29988054 29368150 28528346 28908506 29528569 30518578
               31028563 31628514 32598328 32688202 32438136 31438054
               29988054 

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Page last modified: January 22, 2017
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