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Mesoscale Discussion 106
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0106
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0347 PM CST Sun Mar 04 2018

   Areas affected...northwest North Dakota

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 042147Z - 050045Z

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms moving north-northwest will continue to
   progress into colder airmass. Rain should transition to snow with
   time, although a brief period of freezing rain cannot be ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed within the warm-conveyor
   belt of a evolving mid-latitude cyclone. RAP soundings suggest these
   thunderstorms are rooted in a warm nose around 700 millibars. Given
   midlevel lapse rates around 8 C/km, small hail will be possible with
   these thunderstorms.

   As these thunderstorms continue to lift to the north-northwest,
   strengthening ascent should sufficiently cool the vertical column --
   including the warm nose -- to sustain ice crystals much closer to
   the ground. Additionally, as surface temperatures fall below 32F,
   transition to primarily snow should occur, although a brief period
   of freezing rain will be possible if surface temperatures fall
   faster than temperatures around 700 millibars.

   ..Marsh.. 03/04/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...GGW...

   LAT...LON   47489936 47520155 47280256 46720315 46640414 47410443
               48700446 49110417 49119974 48729884 48029836 47599876
               47489936 

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Page last modified: March 05, 2018
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