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Mesoscale Discussion 106
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0106
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0759 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NRN AR...ERN OK...FAR SRN MO

   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

   VALID 010159Z - 010800Z

   SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND INCREASE IN
   INTENSITY THIS EVENING. HRLY RATES IN EXCESS OF 0.05 INCHES ARE
   LIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...A ZONE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WITH A SWLY
   LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN A FEED OF MOISTURE NEWD ACROSS THE
   ARKLATEX AND INTO THE OZARKS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS OF FREEZING RAIN
   PERSIST AS OF 02Z...AND SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF THESE SHOWERS
   IS EXPECTED AS MOISTURE AND EVEN WEAK INSTABILITY INCREASE.

   THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE EXTENDED FROM SERN OK ACROSS NRN AR AS OF
   02Z...AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH. HOWEVER...THE WARM NOSE
   ALOFT WILL SPREAD NWD WITH TIME...WITH SNOW CHANGING TO SLEET AND
   THEN FREEZING RAIN LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR NRN AR INTO SRN MO.


   THE GREATEST DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER NWRN/NRN AR
   IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FREEZING LINE...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER
   IS HIGHEST AND WHERE LOW AMOUNT OF ELEVATED CAPE MAY EVENTUALLY
   DEVELOP...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION RATES.

   ..JEWELL.. 03/01/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36719333 37129231 37329122 37219070 36799065 36129096
               35689154 35179282 34969353 34759416 34449550 34629591
               35209595 35619557 35989492 36249447 36719333 

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Page last modified: March 01, 2015
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