Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 107
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 107 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0107
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0226 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NC AND VA PIEDMONT

   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

   VALID 010826Z - 011400Z

   SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NNEWD FROM
   CNTRL NC INTO S-CNTRL VA BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  RAINFALL RATES
   AROUND 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOURS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z.

   DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1040 MB HIGH
   OVER DELMARVA WITH A CP AIR MASS DAMMED IN LEE OF THE CNTRL-SRN
   APPALACHIANS TO THE N OF A RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE.  SURFACE TEMPS
   RANGE FROM 32 DEG F OVER CNTRL NC TO THE MIDDLE 20S OVER S-CNTRL VA.
   A BROAD WARM-AIR ADVECTION REGIME ENCOMPASSES THE TN VALLEY AND
   CAROLINAS AS THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS TRANSITIONS TO A
   TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES AND WEAK RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
   MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  A GRADUAL MOISTENING IN THE LOWER-MID
   TROPOSPHERE WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT FAVORS THE
   NEWD SPREAD OF SHOWERS FROM SC AND S-CNTRL NC INTO CNTRL NC AND
   S-CNTRL VA THROUGH 14Z.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL
   MELTING LAYER PROTRUDING AROUND H8 ATOP A SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING
   NEAR-SURFACE LAYER.  THE RESULTANT P-TYPE WILL FAVOR FREEZING RAIN
   AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOUR RATES ARE POSSIBLE
   ONCE FREEZING RAIN BEGINS.

   ..SMITH.. 03/01/2015


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...GSP...

   LAT...LON   36557760 35707859 35618060 36547992 37177860 36557760 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: March 01, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities