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Mesoscale Discussion 107
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0107
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0655 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE AL...SW GA...FL PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 15...

   VALID 160055Z - 160300Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 15 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW
   MORE HOURS AS A LINE MOVES EWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WW 15 AND
   INTO SW GA AND ACROSS NRN FL. DUE TO A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT...A
   NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO THE EAST OF WW 15.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A NEARLY CONTINUOUS LINE OF
   STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN AL WHICH IS LOCATED JUST
   AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE LINE HAVE SLOWLY
   INCREASED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S F AND WEAK INSTABILITY IS
   ANALYZED BY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS. THE SQUALL-LINE IS BEING SUPPORTED
   BY A SLAB OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
   TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
   ORGANIZED...MOVING ACROSS WRN GA AND NRN FL FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
   IN ADDITION...A LOW TO MID-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED JUST BEHIND THE LINE
   WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR WIND DAMAGE. A TORNADO
   THREAT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ROTATING CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE DUE
   TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

   ..BROYLES.. 02/16/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   32668543 32038583 31488611 30958639 30508662 30118664
               29618628 29378581 29148494 29578399 30868340 32448388
               32808457 32668543 

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Page last modified: February 16, 2016
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