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Mesoscale Discussion 109
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0109
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0932 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN FL PANHANDLE...SWRN GA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 16...

   VALID 160332Z - 160430Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 16 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR SVR WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO WILL CONTINUE TO
   DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS...AND BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO
   COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE ERN FL PANHANDLE.

   DISCUSSION...A LONG-LIVED MCS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE
   FL PANHANDLE...BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF GRADUAL WEAKENING AS
   PRECIPITATION HAS INCREASED AHEAD OF THE LINE. TRENDS SUGGEST
   INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HRS ACROSS THE
   REGION...WITH THE RELATIVELY HIGHEST THREAT ACROSS THE WATCH
   REMAINING FOCUSED NEAR THE COAST...WHERE BUOYANCY REMAINS MAXIMIZED.
   STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE FOR AN
   ISOLATED SVR WIND GUST OR BRIEF TORNADO...BUT OVERALL THE THREAT
   SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE ERN
   FL PANHANDLE...INCLUDING THE BIG BEND.

   ..ROGERS.. 02/16/2016


   ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   31778295 29528299 29108380 29158460 29328526 29908519
               31228455 31818394 31878369 31778295 

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Page last modified: February 16, 2016
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