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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0110
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CST WED JAN 30 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL PORTIONS OF NC/SOUTHEAST VA/MD
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 25...27...
VALID 310552Z - 310715Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 25...27...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCHES 25/27 CONTINUE...WITH RISKS FOR WIND
DAMAGE/ISOLATED TORNADO OVERNIGHT ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF
NC/SOUTHEAST VA/MD.
DISCUSSION...SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO MAKE A STEADY
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT TOWARD/ACROSS
COASTAL PORTIONS OF NC/SOUTHEAST VA AND MD. WHILE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING REMAINS ABSENT...PERSISTENT/WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURES REMAIN READILY EVIDENT INCLUDING SMALL BOWING
SEGMENTS...ALONG WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF AN OVERALL SHARPENING
CONVECTIVE LINE PER REGIONAL WSR-88D DATA. THIS SAME WSR-88D VWP
DATA IS INDICATIVE OF A ROBUST DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD...ACCENTUATED
BY 70-90 KT SSW WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM. EVEN WHILE BUOYANCY
WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK...SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO HOLD NEAR
70F IN THE PRESENCE OF LOWER 60 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/STRONG PRESSURE
FALLS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE MASS
RESPONSE...A FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE CANNOT
BE DISCOUNTED PRIOR TO THE CONVECTIVE LINE CLEARING THE COAST...WITH
DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO POTENTIAL /EVEN IF CLOUD-GROUND LIGHTNING
REMAINS ABSENT/.
..GUYER.. 01/31/2013
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...
LAT...LON 38477704 38117450 35387584 34287745 33537885 34567879
35727833 38477704
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