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Mesoscale Discussion 111
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0111
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0601 PM CST TUE MAR 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN PA...NJ...SERN NY INTO SRN
   NEW ENGLAND

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 040001Z - 040400Z

   SUMMARY...AREAS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE ONGOING FROM PORTIONS
   OF CNTRL/ERN PA AND NJ INTO SERN NEW YORK...AND WILL SPREAD ENEWD
   DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH WINTER MIXED PRECIP REMAINING
   POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...A PLAN-VIEW DEPICTION OF 1.5-KM-AGL FLOW SAMPLED BY
   REGIONAL VWPS HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENSIVE LLJ STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO
   VALLEY ENEWD INTO PA AND SRN NY. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL ASCENT WITHIN
   THE BROADER TERMINUS OF THE LLJ IS SUPPORTING A SHIELD OF
   PRECIPITATION FROM NY INTO ERN PA AND NJ...SPREADING ACROSS SRN NEW
   ENGLAND. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE LLJ IS MAINTAINING
   PRECIPITATION WELL WSWWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THAT WILL SPREAD
   ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING.

   SFC TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
   NOCTURNAL COOLING BEGINNING TO OFFSET WAA-INDUCED SFC WARMING
   ACCOMPANYING THE SLY SFC-FLOW COMPONENT. AS SUCH...A MIX OF WINTER
   PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...WITH INITIALLY
   SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF SERN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND BECOMING REPLACED
   BY THE WINTRY MIX. WITH EXPECTED WARMING ALOFT OWING TO
   WAA...PARTIAL TO PERHAPS NEARLY COMPLETE MELTING OF HYDROMETEORS
   WILL OCCUR. FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.02 TO PERHAPS LOCALLY 0.05 INCH
   PER HOUR -- MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF PA INTO NJ -- WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   HOWEVER...SLEET IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BECOMING PREDOMINANT...WITH
   SLEET ACCUMULATION RATES AROUND 0.05-0.15 INCH PER HOUR.

   SIMILAR WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH
   THE EVENING. A TENDENCY FOR WEAKENING ASCENT/DRYING ALOFT IS
   EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DECREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/INTENSITY IN
   THE 03Z-06Z TIME FRAME...FROM WSW TO ENE.

   ..COHEN.. 03/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

   LAT...LON   40207453 39777662 40087783 40847785 42247540 42937243
               42567090 41747060 40887269 40207453 

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Page last modified: March 04, 2015
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