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Mesoscale Discussion 111
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0111
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 PM CST MON FEB 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN INDIANA TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MI AND
   NORTHERN OH

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 172157Z - 180300Z

   SUMMARY...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
   EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MI TO
   NORTHWEST OH. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1+ IN/HR WILL OCCUR WITH THE
   HEAVIEST SNOW. THIS MAY INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR
   THUNDERSNOW...PRIMARILY IN THE SHORT-TERM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
   NORTHERN INDIANA/FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MI.

   DISCUSSION...A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MID-UPPER JET STREAK
   CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY AT MID-AFTERNOON WILL
   CONTINUE TO MAKE A STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THIS
   EVENING...WITH ASSOCIATED UVV TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF INDIANA/SOUTHERN
   HALF OF LOWER MI AND OH. ESPECIALLY WHEN CONSIDERING A TREND TOWARD
   COLDER CLOUD TOPS PER IR SATELLITE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE VORT
   MAX/DRY SLOT...AMPLE UVV COINCIDENT WITH A SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER
   WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTI-HOUR DURATIONS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
   HEAVY SNOW WITH 1+ IN/HR RATES POSSIBLE. 

   THIS IS PARTICULARLY THE CASE GIVEN SOME CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED
   HEAVIER BOUTS OF SNOW...WITH LIGHTNING/REPORTED THUNDERSNOW EVIDENT
   SINCE THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL INTO FAR NORTHWEST
   INDIANA AS OF 21Z. A 18Z SPECIAL OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM LINCOLN IL
   SAMPLED APPROXIMATELY 370 J/KG OF MUCAPE COINCIDENT WITH A PLUME OF
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8+ DEG C PER KM 700-500 MB/.
   THUNDERSNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
   /MID TO PERHAPS LATE AFTERNOON/ ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA/FAR
   SOUTHWEST MI...BUT THE OVERALL TSTM POTENTIAL SHOULD WANE...ALTHOUGH
   THE PROXIMITY OF WEAK INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SNOW
   RATES INTO THIS EVENING REGARDLESS OF DEEP ENOUGH UPDRAFTS FOR
   LIGHTNING PRODUCTION.

   ..GUYER.. 02/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

   LAT...LON   41078300 39918553 40868656 41578791 43058746 43418688
               44138560 44188316 43148239 41948233 41078300 

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Page last modified: February 18, 2014
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