MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0111
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1248 AM CST THU JAN 31 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MD / DE / FAR ERN PA / NJ / FAR SERN
   NY...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND / SWRN CT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 310648Z - 310745Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY
   INCREASE THROUGH 09Z.  WHILE A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED...CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR SHOWER INTENSIFICATION.
   
   DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR DATA INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE
   IN REFLECTIVITY VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH A BROKEN CONVECTIVE BAND FROM
   JUST W OF TTN TO NEAR BWI.  THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LATEST
   CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS A CONTINUED NWD
   DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND INTO FAR SERN NY THROUGH 09Z. 
   DESPITE THE SEASONALLY MOIST AIR MASS...MODEL-DERIVED SOUNDINGS
   INDICATE THAT WEAKLY BUOYANT PARCELS ARE ORIGINATING FROM AROUND 850
   MB...OWING TO POOR LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  AS SUCH...CONVECTION WILL
   LIKELY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A SHALLOW NEAR-SURFACE STABLE
   LAYER.  STILL...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
   ANY MORE ROBUST DOWNDRAFTS THAT CAN DEVELOP OWING TO THE INTENSE
   LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IN PLACE.
   
   ..MEAD.. 01/31/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...
   
   LAT...LON   39197619 40427535 41477454 41577363 41237346 40517364
               38927463 38587517 38547543 38777591 38787607 39197619