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Mesoscale Discussion 112
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0112
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1214 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CT/RI/MA TO SOUTHERN/EASTERN NH AND
   SOUTHWEST MAINE

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 181814Z - 182315Z

   SUMMARY...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES REACHING 1-2 IN/HR WILL
   STEADILY DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM
   EAST-CENTRAL MA TO SOUTHERN/EASTERN NH AND SOUTHWEST/COASTAL MAINE.

   DISCUSSION...17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
   ROUGHLY 75 MILES OFF THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND/SOUTHERN NEW
   ENGLAND...WITH 3+ MB/2-HR PRESSURE FALLS MAXIMIZED ALONG COASTAL NEW
   ENGLAND. AS THE NEAR-COASTAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO
   DEEPEN...DPVA/STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING
   UVV/PRECIPITATION RATES /AND A GENERAL SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
   ADVANCEMENT THEREOF/ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
   EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ROUGHLY WITHIN 50-80 MILES OF THE
   COAST. SUCH A SCENARIO IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE SUCH AS
   MULTI-RUN HRRR AND THE 12Z WRF-NSSL.

   INCREASING UVV/SATURATION ASIDE...UPSTREAM OBSERVED 12Z SOUNDINGS
   FROM ABERDEEN PROVING GROUND /KAPG/ AND WALLOPS ISLAND /KWAL/
   SAMPLED A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN SOME WEAK
   ELEVATED BUOYANCY. ATTENDANT TO THE CYCLONE...LIKELY DOWNSTREAM
   ADVECTION/PROXIMITY OF THESE RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES/VERY WEAK
   BUOYANCY LEADS FURTHER CREDENCE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOW
   INCLUDING 1-2 IN/HR RATES. FOR INSTANCE...12Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   INDICATE RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 800-600 MB ACROSS THE
   REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD BE VERTICALLY COLLOCATED WITH A
   SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER FOR A MULTI-HOUR DURATION.

   ..GUYER.. 02/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...

   LAT...LON   44586932 44226916 43747016 42947101 42287134 41877193
               42337248 43137191 44217116 44586932 

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Page last modified: February 18, 2014
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