Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 112
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 112 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0112
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0359 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...FL EVERGLADES

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 17...

   VALID 160959Z - 161100Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 17 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR A SUPERCELL TORNADO WILL
   LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE FL EVERGLADES AND MOVING INTO PALM BEACH
   COUNTY THROUGH 11-12Z.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A
   WEDGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE/THETA-E NEAR AND S OF A LINE FROM APF NEWD
   TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND NEAR THE MARTIN/PALM BEACH COUNTY LINE. 
   LOWER 70S TEMPS AND UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WITHIN THIS REGION ARE
   CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE BUOYANCY /AROUND 1000 J PER KG MLCAPE/. 
   WHILE THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER GA BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY
   FROM THE REGION TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SRN
   PORTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE W OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS.  AS A RESULT...STRONG TO SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY
   INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR A SUPERCELL TORNADO OR TWO WILL CONTINUE
   FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE...ESPECIALLY FOR HENDRY
   AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  IT IS HERE WHERE
   AN ANCHORING SUPERCELL IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND POSE THE GREATEST
   THREAT FOR ISOLD DMGG WINDS AND A TORNADO COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER
   N WITH THE SQUALL LINE.  

   UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXTENT OF ANY SEVERE THREAT
   FARTHER S FOR BROWARD COUNTY SWWD TO THE TEN THOUSAND ISLANDS. 
   CURRENT THINKING IS THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM THE W
   WILL OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK.  THE FACTORS OF 1) LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
   BEGIN TO VEER AND 2) UPPER WAVE BECOMING INCREASINGLY DISPLACED FROM
   THE REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING LESS
   SUPPORTIVE FOR TORNADOES. THEREFORE...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DOUBT
   ABOUT THE NEED FOR A NEW WATCH OR A WATCH EXTENSION-IN-AREA SOUTH OF
   THE EXISTING WATCH.

   ..SMITH.. 02/16/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

   LAT...LON   26188144 26428137 26968049 26888007 26428012 26048129
               26188144 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: February 16, 2016
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities