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Mesoscale Discussion 113
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0113
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1006 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KY THROUGH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 190406Z - 190630Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
   SPREAD EWD THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL KY AND PARTS OF WRN AND MIDDLE TN.
   SOME OF THE STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME CAPABLE OF ISOLATED
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME
   SUFFICIENT FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...LATE THIS EVENING SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION IS
   DEVELOPING OVER WRN KY. ACTIVITY IS INITIATING WITHIN ZONE OF
   DESTABILIZATION AND ASCENT FORCED BY A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY REGION AND ITS ATTENDANT 40 KT SWLY LLJ.
   A CORRIDOR OF MODEST INSTABILITY /800-1000 J/KG/ MUCAPE HAS
   DEVELOPED OVER WRN AND MIDDLE TN INTO SWRN KY WHERE THE LLJ HAS
   ADVECTED RICHER MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP MIDDLE LEVEL-LAPSE RATES BUT
   ABOVE THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER. THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS MORE CAPPED
   WITH SWRN EXTENT INTO WRN AND MIDDLE TN...SO SRN EXTENT OF THE MORE
   ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...GLAZING
   INFLUENCE OF ASCENT ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY
   BE SUFFICIENT TO ERODE THE CAP AND INITIATE STORMS INTO NRN PARTS OF
   WRN AND MIDDLE TN. THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RESTRICTED TO ISOLATED HAIL
   GIVEN THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE DEVELOPING STORMS.

   ..DIAL/HART.. 02/19/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   37428787 37748607 37258535 36558547 35928612 35578724
               35818826 36298886 36978880 37428787 

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Page last modified: February 19, 2014
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