MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0114
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0950 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF S TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 060350Z - 060545Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM IS FORECAST TO CROSS
   THE RIO GRANDE RIVER IN THE 0430Z-0445Z TIME FRAME AND MOVE ESEWD
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TX. SVR HAIL WILL BE THE
   MAIN CONCERN. THE ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY SVR THREAT...AND
   ANTICIPATED WEAKENING TREND...WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.
   
   DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORM THAT DEVELOPED WITHIN AN
   UPSLOPE REGIME AMIDST MID-LEVEL DCVA OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO OF
   NRN MEXICO HAS STEADILY STRENGTHENED...ESPECIALLY AFTER DEVIATING TO
   THE RIGHT OF THE MEAN FLOW. ON ITS PRESENT TRACK -- ESEWD AT 35-40
   KT -- IT WILL LIKELY CROSS THE U.S.-MEXICO BORDER BETWEEN 0430Z AND
   0445Z...BEFORE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
   TX. BRO RADAR DATA AND WDSS-II MESH DATA SUGGEST THAT SVR HAIL IS
   LIKELY OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND THE PRESENCE OF 40-50 KT OF
   DEEP SHEAR PER DFX VWP DATA WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A SVR THREAT INTO
   ZAPATA COUNTY. DESPITE THIS STORM ADVANCING TOWARD RICHER LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE...CONTINUED NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD SUPPORT
   INCREASING CINH SUCH THAT A WEAKENING TREND WILL LIKELY COMMENCE AS
   THE STORM MOVES FARTHER INTO S TX. HOWEVER...SMALL HAIL MAY REMAIN A
   CONCERN PAST 06Z.
   
   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 02/06/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BRO...
   
   LAT...LON   26719933 27039945 27239934 27199868 26959828 26319836
               26409902 26719933