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Mesoscale Discussion 114
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0114
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0806 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

   Areas affected...Northeast OK...Central/Southern
   AR...Northwest/Central MS

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 7...

   Valid 110206Z - 110400Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 7 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe hail will remain possible across portions of
   northeast OK and central AR for the next hour or two. A downstream
   watch may be needed across portions of northern/central MS.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over south-central
   OK with a warm front extending eastward through southern AR and
   central MS. Thunderstorm coverage has increased over the past hour
   as a subtle increase in the low-level jet promotes warm-air
   advection across the frontal zone. Supercell moving across central
   AR has devolved into an outflow-dominant storm cluster with
   occasional updrafts strong enough to support large hail. Storm
   interactions and favorable vertical shear will likely result in the
   persistence of isolated hail for the next hour or two. 

   Downstream airmass across MS is notably more stable (i.e. 00Z JAN
   sounding sampled a 700-500mb lapse rate of only 5.6 degrees C per km
   verses 7.2 degrees C per km on the 00Z LZK) but strong vertical
   shear, continued warm-air advection, and recent storm trends suggest
   a continued severe storm threat. As a result, a watch may be needed
   within the hour.

   ..Mosier.. 03/11/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35319575 36329574 36219437 34559066 33768886 32628926
               33019097 34529470 35319575 

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