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Mesoscale Discussion 114
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0114
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0134 PM CST WED MAR 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ARKANSAS...SRN MISSOURI...SRN ILLINOIS...WRN
   KENTUCKY...NWRN TENNESSEE

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 041934Z - 042330Z

   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW...AT RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...APPEARS
   POSSIBLE WITHIN A DEVELOPING BAND...FROM THE BOSTON MOUNTAINS OF
   NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
   AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH 00-01Z.

   DISCUSSION...SLOW...STEADY SOUTHWARD ADVANCEMENT AND DEEPENING OF
   THE SURFACE BASED COLD INTRUSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY...COINCIDENT WITH THE CONTINUED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
   LARGE...POSITIVELY TILTED NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH.  THE LATEST
   RAPID REFRESH AND NCEP SREF OUTPUT SUGGEST THAT COOLING OF A REMNANT
   WARM LAYER BETWEEN 850 MB AND 700 MB WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE
   CONTINUED TRANSITION OF PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE
   REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH THE
   21-23Z TIME FRAME.  AT THE SAME TIME...STRENGTHENING LOWER/MID
   TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS
   EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INTENSIFYING PRECIPITATION RATES.  IT APPEARS
   THAT THIS WILL BE ENHANCED BY FORCING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
   OF A HIGH LEVEL JET OVERSPREADING THE REGION...INCREASING LIFT
   WITHIN THE FAVORABLE MIXED PHASE LAYER FOR LARGE DENDRITIC ICE
   CRYSTAL GROWTH.  GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE /PW ON THE ORDER OF
   .50-.75 INCHES/ WHICH CONTINUES TO RETURN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
   OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING...IT APPEARS THAT A HEAVY SNOW BAND...AT
   RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR...MAY EVOLVE THROUGH EARLY
   EVENING...WHILE TENDING TO DEVELOP EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
   LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

   ..KERR.. 03/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   37079189 37728920 37768777 36868772 35889077 35509279
               35409411 35629445 36109435 37079189 

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Page last modified: March 04, 2015
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