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Mesoscale Discussion 114
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0114
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0636 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...S FL AND THE KEYS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 161236Z - 161330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE PREVIOUSLY TORNADIC SUPERCELL CLUSTER OVER THE MIAMI
   AND FORT LAUDERDALE METROS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE ONLY SUBSTANTIVE
   SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT HOUR.  A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY NOT BE
   NEEDED OVER THE FL KEYS.

   DISCUSSION...THE MFL RAOB AT 12Z SHOW A VERY MOIST/MODIFIED PBL WITH
   A STRONG AND VEERING WIND PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF LOW-LEVEL
   MESOCYCLONES.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE IMMEDIATE INFLOW TO THE
   STORMS OVER BROWARD COUNTY SHOW LOW TO MID 70S TEMPS WITH DEWPOINTS
   NEAR 70 DEG F.  THE NEAR-TERM THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS AND ANOTHER
   TORNADO WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE S FL METRO VICINITY AND THE
   PROSPECTS FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH FOR THE FL KEYS AND MIAMI-DADE AND
   MONROE COUNTIES IS UNCERTAIN/APPRECIABLY LOW ATTM.  GRADUAL VEERING
   OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ACT TO REDUCE THE SIZE OF HODOGRAPHS GOING
   FORWARD IN TIME.  NONETHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SHORT-TERM
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

   ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 02/16/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

   LAT...LON   24728239 25878095 26228013 25268026 24808067 24368194
               24728239 

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Page last modified: February 16, 2016
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