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Mesoscale Discussion 115
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0115
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1236 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

   Areas affected...central FL panhandle into southwest GA

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 21...

   Valid 221836Z - 221930Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 21 continues.

   SUMMARY...Semi-discrete cells will continue to track northeast
   across the central FL panhandle into southwest GA the next few
   hours. Environmental conditions have been improving into early
   afternoon, and tornadoes, damaging winds and hail will be possible
   with these storms.

   DISCUSSION...A line of semi-discrete supercells offshore of Bay
   County FL will quickly track northeast. Radar data from EVX
   indicates moderate low to mid level rotation with these cells, which
   will move onshore soon. 18z RAOB from TLH shows a favorable
   supercell environment with steep lapse rates and strong shear in
   place. Furthermore, a combination of 18z mesoanalysis data with RAOB
   and VWP data indicate 0-1km SRH values have continued to increase
   from around 200 m2/s2 just a couple of hours ago, to over 400 m2/s2
   currently. Surface observations in this area have continued to
   improve with northward extent into southwest GA where temperatures
   have warmed into the 70s and dewpoints have climbed into the upper
   60s to near 70 under broken cloudiness. The environmental parameter
   space will continue to support a threat for strong tornadoes, with
   the greatest threat over the next few hours. Additional intense
   cells from Walton County FL to Dale County GA also will be entering
   this more favorable environment soon and an increase in organization
   and strength is possible.

   ..Leitman.. 01/22/2017


   LAT...LON   29908603 30638576 31068536 31208485 31098421 30888387
               30358387 29798412 29518435 29248486 29258523 29378559

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