MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0115
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0648 AM CST WED FEB 06 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER TO MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAINS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 061248Z - 061415Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER
   TO MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT
   WILL BE FOR HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING ACROSS SCNTRL TX.
   
   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
   LOCATED FROM NEAR LAREDO EXTENDING NEWD TO NEAR VICTORIA WITH SFC
   DEWPOINTS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE MID 60S F. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. IN
   SPITE OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT
   INSTABILITY IS WEAK ACROSS SCNTRL TX WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 250
   TO 500 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW 50 KT OF
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED
   SUPERCELL/BOW ECHO THREAT THIS MORNING. SHEAR AND LIFT ARE BEING
   ENHANCED BY THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET ANALYZED OVER
   SCNTRL TX. ALTHOUGH THE CELL CURRENTLY IN MCMULLEN COUNTY APPEARS TO
   BE TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...THE CELL
   COULD BECOME INCREASINGLY SFC-BASED AS IT MOVES EWD ONTO THE MIDDLE
   TO UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN. IN THIS CASE...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
   THREAT COULD PERSIST IN ADDITION TO THE HAIL THREAT.
   
   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 02/06/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...
   
   LAT...LON   27849889 27609830 27759725 28239684 28449695 28559709
               28579790 28669848 28509882 27849889