MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0116
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0125 PM CST WED FEB 06 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF DEEP S TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 061925Z - 062100Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT MAY EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP
   SOUTH TX THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.
   
   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS INDICATE AN
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER TX COAST 30 SSE CRP TO
   THE RIO GRANDE RIVER 20 S LRD. MESOSCALE ASCENT IS LOCALLY ENHANCED
   WHERE THE BOUNDARY INTERSECTS A N/S-ORIENTED CUMULUS-MANIFESTED
   CONVERGENCE BAND OVER SRN DUVAL/NRN JIM HOGG/NWRN BROOKS COUNTIES.
   THAT PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IS PROGRESSING
   SWD OWING TO STRONGER COLD POOL GENERATION ACCOMPANYING CONVECTION
   TO ITS N. THAT PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY FARTHER TO THE W HAS BECOME
   MORE QUASI-STATIONARY...AS CONVECTION ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
   BOUNDARY REMAINS MORE SPARSE. MODIFIED 12Z CRP RAOB TO ACCOUNT FOR
   STRONG SFC HEATING S OF THE BOUNDARY -- I.E. SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE
   UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 -- AMIDST MIDDLE/UPPER-60S DEWPOINTS...
   SUGGESTS 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. STORMS INVOF THE BOUNDARY MAY
   BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE. WITH 40-45 KT OF DEEP SHEAR PER CRP VWP
   DATA...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH ISOLATED SVR
   HAIL/WIND POSSIBLE. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN AROUND
   100 M2/S2 OF 0-1-KM SRH AND AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY ALONG THE
   BOUNDARY.
   
   THE LACK OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND THE INFLUX
   OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SHOULD INHIBIT STORM
   COVERAGE. FURTHERMORE...AS CONVECTION GRADUALLY ADVANCES TOWARD THE
   TX COAST...IT MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE UNDERCUT BY THE PROGRESSIVE
   SEGMENT OF THE BOUNDARY...THUS MITIGATING THE SVR THREAT. AS
   SUCH...ANY SVR THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..COHEN/HART.. 02/06/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...
   
   LAT...LON   26689730 26589799 26789851 27199885 27589888 27579833
               27489758 27229740 26689730