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Mesoscale Discussion 116
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0116
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1256 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of north FL and extreme southeastern GA

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 21...

   Valid 221856Z - 222030Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 21 continues.

   SUMMARY...Portions of north FL and extreme southeastern GA are being
   monitored for an ongoing increase in the severe-thunderstorm/tornado
   potential. While activity presently developing farther west will
   more likely pose a greater potential for significant tornadoes later
   today as it spreads across the region, the tornado risk may already
   be increasing.

   DISCUSSION...Convection spreading northeastward from the northeast
   Gulf appears to have developed in association with a gravity wave
   that advanced across the region. Some of this activity is ingesting
   surface-based effective inflow, owing to diabatic heating of the
   moist boundary layer. With a modified 18Z Tampa sounding indicating
   around 1250 J/kg of MLCAPE and little MLCINH, additional storm
   intensification may occur across the area in the short term.

   While stronger deep ascent resides farther west, the aforementioned
   sounding indicates around 60 kt of deep shear that could support
   organized convective structures including supercells. Tornadoes will
   be possible, along with damaging winds and severe hail. The greatest
   tornado risk will extend across parts of far northeast FL into
   adjacent far southeastern GA, where stronger low-level SRH exists in
   the recovering/sheltered boundary layer in the wake of earlier
   convection (per Jacksonville FL VAD wind profile). Local spatial
   extension of the Tornado Watch may be necessary in the short-term,
   if intensification of the ongoing activity were to extend over a
   broader area, though uncertainty in this scenario persists. A much
   more substantial tornado risk will spread across the area later
   today.

   ..Cohen.. 01/22/2017


   ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29388308 30608252 30788161 29948136 28948214 28958272
               29388308 

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Page last modified: January 22, 2017
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