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Mesoscale Discussion 117
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0117
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0515 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/E CNTRL MO AND ADJACENT SWRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 202315Z - 210115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO
   MOSTLY MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL...AND PROBABLY CONFINED IN BOTH AREA AND
   TIME...A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.  BUT TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE DEEPENING ACROSS THE LOWER
   MISSOURI VALLEY...WITHIN AN APPARENT ZONE OF BROADER LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION BASED AROUND 700 MB.  MOISTURE
   RETURN TO THIS ZONE...AT LEAST NORTH OF A VICHY/FARMINGTON LINE...IS
   ELEVATED ABOVE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT STILL
   CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING CAPE WHICH MODELS SUGGEST WILL BECOME
   SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE 00-03Z
   TIME FRAME.

   BENEATH 40-50 KT WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
   POTENTIALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WHICH WILL ENHANCE
   POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY SEVERE HAIL IN THE MORE SUSTAINED STORMS.  THIS
   THREAT IS PROBABLY HIGHEST WITHIN A NARROW CORRIDOR WEST THROUGH
   EAST OF VICHY...INTO AND EAST OF THE FARMINGTON AREA. THIS COINCIDES
   WITH THE NORTHERN GRADIENT OF THE HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER...WHERE
   SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S ARE CONTRIBUTING WEAK BOUNDARY
   LAYER BASED INSTABILITY...AND CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SHEAR IS LIKELY
   MAXIMIZED.

   WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MAY
   CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
   REGION.

   ..KERR/HART.. 02/20/2016


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   39399271 39179129 38688970 37918958 37469046 37759149
               37859252 38319292 39399271 

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Page last modified: February 21, 2016
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