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Mesoscale Discussion 118
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0118
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0318 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 222118Z - 222345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER SWRN TX
   THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE
   THE INITIAL PRIMARY THREAT AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD. TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...ELY POST FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE MAINTAINING UPPER
   40S TO NEAR 50F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS OF
   WRN TX. SFC HEATING HAS BOOSTED TEMPERATURES TO 70F...AND COOLING
   TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS
   FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES DURING THE EVENING WITHIN EXIT REGION
   OF A STRONG SEWD-ADVANCING UPPER JET. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
   SHOWS MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 500 J/KG. DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
   CUMULUS IS BUILDING OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS FARTHER WEST
   ALONG A DRYLINE...AND A STORM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN. SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR /45-50 KT/ IS IN PLACE FOR A FEW
   STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR PRIMARILY LARGE
   HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS.

   ..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 02/22/2016


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30310367 30830414 31440390 31560209 30960127 29930143
               29950268 30310367 

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Page last modified: February 22, 2016
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