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Mesoscale Discussion 119
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0119
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1020 AM CST THU FEB 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN IA...FAR NRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 201620Z - 201745Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION N
   OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT ARCING ACROSS NRN MO INTO CNTRL IL. A
   STABLE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WILL GREATLY INHIBIT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
   WIND.

   DISCUSSION...WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT JUST AHEAD OF A
   VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CROSSING THE LOWER MO VALLEY...AND ON THE
   NRN PERIPHERY OF POSITIVE BUOYANCY...ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
   SUSTAINED ACROSS FAR NRN MO AND SRN/ERN IA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
   DESPITE MUCAPE LARGELY HOLDING AOB 1000 J/KG...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER
   WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF OCCASIONAL UPDRAFT ROTATION AND HAIL SIZES
   APPROACHING AN INCH IN DIAMETER. WITH A STOUT LOW-LEVEL INVERSION
   PER 12Z TOP RAOB AND NAM/RAP-PARALLEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND
   CONFIRMED BY INDIVIDUAL CELL MOVEMENT...CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
   ROOTED PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER WITH NRN EXTENT BETWEEN 850-700 MB. WITH
   LITTLE IF ANY DCAPE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE
   30S/40S...SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL APPEARS QUITE MINIMAL.

   ..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 02/20/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   41039437 41669345 42539199 42709123 42629066 42479046
               42059023 41179091 40199181 39919279 39809362 39899400
               40019439 40569456 41039437 

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Page last modified: February 20, 2014
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