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Mesoscale Discussion 119
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0119
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0624 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 230024Z - 230230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THIS EVENING OVER
   THE TRANSPECOS REGION...SPREADING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU DURING
   THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
   WILL INCREASE...WITH A WW LIKELY NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   DIGGING RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WEST TX.  STRONG LIFT IN ADVANCE
   OF THIS SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE WESTERN EDGE OF DEEPER LOW
   LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH THUNDERSTORMS INTENSIFYING ALONG A CORRIDOR
   FROM NEAR MAF-MRF.  A CONSENSUS OF CAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THESE
   STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE AS THEY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
   THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE INITIAL
   THREAT...BUT UPSCALE ORGANIZATION INTO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WILL
   ENHANCE THE DAMAGING WIND RISK BEFORE MIDNIGHT.  CURRENT INDICATIONS
   ARE THAT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT
   1-2 HOURS FOR PORTIONS OF THIS REGION.

   ..HART/PETERS.. 02/23/2016


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29760295 30080333 30700341 31740270 31370098 30789964
               29289940 28659977 28610052 29310113 29630213 29760295 

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Page last modified: February 23, 2016
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