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Mesoscale Discussion 119
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0119
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0727 PM CST WED MAR 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN...SERN
   MO...WRN KY

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 050127Z - 050730Z

   SUMMARY...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
   MID-SOUTH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF
   SUBSTANTIAL ICING AND HEAVY SNOW.

   DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AREAS OF
   PRECIPITATION FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE OHIO VALLEY...IN ASSOCIATION
   WITH AN EXTENSIVE ZONE OF LOW/MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS PRECEDING
   PHASING MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. CONVECTIVE
   PROCESSES OVER THE ARKLATEX -- WHERE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS
   ONGOING -- ARE STIMULATING GROWTH OF ADDITIONAL HEAVIER
   PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NEWD/ENEWD ACROSS
   THE REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MEANWHILE...SUBFREEZING
   SFC TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT RELATIVELY WARMER AIR ALOFT
   FROM NW TO SE...SUPPORTING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES.

   A MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIVERSITY SOUNDING TAKEN NEAR THE MEMPHIS
   WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SAMPLES
   ABOVE-0C TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND 900 MB TO 650 MB...WITH MAXIMUM
   WARM-LAYER TEMPERATURES AROUND 6C. THIS WILL SUPPORT COMPLETE
   MELTING OF DESCENDING HYDROMETEORS FROM PARTS OF SWRN TN INTO NWRN
   MS AND E-CNTRL AR...WHERE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY.
   FREEZING-RAIN RATES OF 0.03 TO 0.10 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE
   POSSIBLE...HIGHEST RATES WITH CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION.
   SUBSTANTIAL ICING MAY ENSUE.

   A NARROW TRANSITION ZONE TOWARD SLEET AND THEN SNOW WILL OCCUR
   NWWD/NWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA INTO NERN AR...FAR SERN MO...AND
   WRN KY...WHERE ELEVATED WARM-LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
   COOLER. SLEET ACCUMULATION RATES OF ONE-TENTH TO ONE-QUARTER INCH
   PER HOUR MAY OCCUR...WITH LOCAL SNOWFALL RATES OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES PER
   HOUR ALSO POSSIBLE. WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
   INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A TENDENCY FOR SNOW TO BECOME
   INCREASINGLY PREDOMINANT FROM NW TO SE AS DEEPER COLD AIR
   OVERSPREADS THE REGION.

   ..COHEN.. 03/05/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...

   LAT...LON   34789242 35629154 37558786 37198687 36598715 35628866
               34659038 34089235 34789242 

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Page last modified: March 05, 2015
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