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Mesoscale Discussion 120
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0120
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0753 PM CST WED MAR 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL TX...NE TX AND SW AR

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 050153Z - 050800Z

   SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
   EVENING FROM NCNTRL TX ENEWD INTO SW AR. LIQUID-EQUIVALENT
   PRECIPITATION RATES SHOULD REACH A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR WITHIN
   THE HEAVIER BANDS.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
   FROM THE TX COASTAL PLAINS NEWD INTO NCNTRL AR. BEHIND THE FRONT...A
   COLD AIRMASS IS SETTLING SWD INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. THE FREEZING
   LINE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM LITTLE ROCK AR WSWWD TO NEAR
   DALLAS/FORT WORTH. THE AREA SOUTH OF FORT WORTH IS JUST ABOVE
   FREEZING WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
   TOP OF THE COLD AIRMASS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
   ADVECTION BENEATH A SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT
   ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO
   SPREAD SHOWERS ENEWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION AT
   THE SFC WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
   A CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE MCD
   AREA. ALTHOUGH FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION
   TYPE...SLEET WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AS THE DEPTH
   OF THE SUB-FREEZING LAYER DEEPENS ACROSS THE MCD AREA.

   ..BROYLES.. 03/05/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33389296 33569237 33909207 34219198 34539210 34709246
               34649330 33969554 33459764 33079844 32419863 31689801
               31649735 32299572 33389296 

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Page last modified: March 05, 2015
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