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Mesoscale Discussion 122
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0122
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0343 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of coastal central CA eastward toward
   parts of the Central Valley of CA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 222143Z - 222345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong thunderstorms may affect the area through the
   afternoon and into the evening hours. Watch issuance is not
   anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...As the exit region of an intense midlevel speed maximum
   continues approaching the coast, cooling aloft will continue during
   the next several hours. Related destabilization has already
   contributed to offshore thunderstorm development, with this activity
   forecast to spread toward the coast and onshore through the late
   afternoon and evening hours -- perhaps affecting the San Francisco
   Bay Area. Other occasionally strong storms could affect portions of
   the Central Valley of CA, where visible satellite loops indicate
   cloud breaks permitting insolation. Despite very marginal buoyancy,
   strong deep shear may support a few sustained convective elements
   capable of small hail and locally strong wind gusts. While an
   isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, buoyancy is
   expected to be too minimal for a more substantial severe risk.

   ..Cohen/Hart.. 01/22/2017


   ATTN...WFO...HNX...STO...MTR...

   LAT...LON   37222232 38252279 39102180 38262111 36992089 36262106
               36022182 37222232 

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Page last modified: January 22, 2017
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