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Mesoscale Discussion 122
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0122
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0800 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN TX AND SWRN LA COASTAL AREAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 231400Z - 231500Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...MARGINAL SHORT TERM THREAT FOR A BRIEF STRONG WIND GUST OR
   TWO AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO EXISTS NEAR THE SERN TX AND SWRN LA
   COASTS. THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A WW AT THIS TIME.
   HOWEVER...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED FARTHER EAST
   ACROSS LA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
   ALONG THE SRN LA THROUGH SERN TX COASTAL AREAS. A LARGE AREA OF
   STRATIFORM RAIN WAS LOCATED OVER MUCH OF ERN TX INTO WRN LA. A FEW
   THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE TRAILING END OF THIS RAIN AREA
   INCLUDING AN EMBEDDED LINE SEGMENT AND A STORM WITH WEAK ROTATION
   JUST EAST OF HOUSTON AREA. LOW-LEVEL AND DEEPER SHEAR WILL REMAIN
   SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS AND DEVELOPS
   NWD THROUGH THE WRN GULF. STORMS MOVING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
   BOUNDARY MAY OCCASIONALLY DEVELOP ORGANIZED STRUCTURES WITH AT LEAST
   A MARGINAL THREAT FOR A STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUST AND PERHAPS A
   BRIEF TORNADO. HOWEVER...IN THE SHORT TERM WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
   REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR AS INDICATED BY THE 12Z LAKE CHARLES
   SOUNDING.

   ..DIAL/GOSS.. 02/23/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

   LAT...LON   29659314 29599359 29479433 29199492 29749482 30209405
               30219321 29659314 

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Page last modified: February 23, 2016
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