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Mesoscale Discussion 122
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0122
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0404 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

   Areas affected...Southern SD...Northern NE...Far
   Southeast/East-Central WY

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 160904Z - 161300Z

   SUMMARY...A transition to winter precipitation is anticipated soon
   with this mixed winter precipitation expected to persist for the
   next several hours.

   DISCUSSION...Current regional radar imagery shows a band of
   precipitation, with embedded heavier cores and occasional lightning,
   arcing from southwest SD through southeast NE. This band is on the
   eastern periphery of the low-level jet where isentropic ascent is
   maximized. This ascent, as well as ongoing moisture advection, is
   shown well on the 300K theta surface. Mature cyclone responsible for
   the low-level jet and increased forcing for ascent will continue to
   fill over the next few hours, leading to a gradual weakening of the
   low-level jet and isentropic ascent. However, precipitation will
   likely continue for at the next few hours with some expansion in
   light/moderate precipitation possible as the system moves eastward.

   Wet-bulb effects are expected to cool surface temperatures across
   the region a few degrees, resulting in a transition to mixed winter
   precipitation. Warm nose in place across north-central NE and
   south-central/southeast SD is expected to result in dominant
   precipitation type of freezing rain. Rain rates in this area could
   top 0.05"/hr in the heavier cores. Farther west, less pronounced
   warm nose will result in profiles remaining cold enough for
   primarily snow. Generally moderate snowfall rates are anticipated
   but occasional/brief instances of snowfall rates around 1"/hr are
   possible.

   ..Mosier.. 03/16/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

   LAT...LON   42440080 42310143 42060249 41820385 42140434 42930433
               43710375 44000272 44160134 43909825 43009746 42619844
               42440080 

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Page last modified: March 16, 2018
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