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Mesoscale Discussion 123
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0123
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0219 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

   Areas affected...portions of western/southwestern Missouri and
   adjacent/extreme eastern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 161919Z - 162115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple of thunderstorms may develop over portions of
   west-central and southwestern Missouri, and possibly a portion of
   far east-central Kansas, over the next couple of hours.  While a
   briefly severe storm or two could develop, a watch appears unlikely
   at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery indicates gradually
   deepening cumulus within a northwest-to-southeast zone from far
   east-central Kansas into parts of southwestern Missouri.  The cu
   growth is occurring along an occluded/warm front extending from a
   low in north-central Kansas east-southeast into the Missouri boot
   heel per the latest surface analysis.  

   West of the cu field into eastern Kansas/eastern Oklahoma, low-level
   mixing is occurring, with dewpoints falling through the 40s into the
   30s with time, as a dryline now near the
   Kansas-Missouri/Oklahoma-Arkansas borders mixes eastward.  Between
   the dryline and the aforementioned warm front, a narrow 50s
   dewpoints warm sector is fueling the cu growth.

   As the upper system weakens with time and the surface low fills,
   overall weakening of large-scale ascent is anticipated.  This
   combined with substantial drying/subsidence implied by water vapor
   imagery (and confirmed by the 19z SGF RAOB), along with the overall
   lack of CAPE, all argue against any more than marginal severe risk. 
   With that said, shear profiles in the vicinity of the warm front
   remain sufficient for updraft rotation, so any more vigorous updraft
   that could develop could organize -- and possibly strengthen to
   include an attendant risk for gusty winds, marginal hail, or even a
   brief, weak tornado.  However, at this time it appears that risk
   will remain quite confined areally, and likely limited to only a
   storm or two at best.  As such, ww issuance is not currently
   expected.

   ..Goss/Guyer.. 03/16/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   37799438 38399503 38709470 38609401 37959280 37259220
               37029242 36909321 37199407 37799438 

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Page last modified: March 16, 2018
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