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Mesoscale Discussion 123
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0123
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0558 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

   Areas affected...Eastern GA...southern half of SC

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 22...

   Valid 222358Z - 230130Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 22 continues.

   SUMMARY...Risk for damaging winds and a few tornadoes continues
   across Tornado Watch 22, with the greatest risk across the southern
   portion of the watch.

   DISCUSSION...At 2345Z, widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms
   are ongoing across Tornado Watch 22 from eastern GA into southern
   SC. The severe threat has been tempered thus far by the inability of
   the surface warm front to advance northeastward into the rain-cooled
   airmass across much of SC. Strong 2-hour pressure falls of 3-4 mb on
   the cool side of the boundary indicate that the warm front is
   attempting to advance northward, but there is only a narrow window
   of opportunity for this to occur before the primary convective band
   moves offshore. This should keep the primary tornado threat across
   the southern portion of Tornado Watch 22 from far eastern GA into
   southern SC, as indicated by the recent TDS noted in Camden County.
   Further north, strongly veering wind profiles with height will
   result in a conditional risk of a tornado or locally damaging winds
   if any pockets of modest destabilization can evolve with time.

   A secondary band of convection along the synoptic cold front will
   move into the area later this evening. Thus far, this frontal
   convection has been rather weak across south-central GA and buoyancy
   will remain limited ahead of this band, but this area will continue
   to be monitored for any uptick in intensity, given the strong wind
   fields that will persist into tonight.

   ..Dean.. 01/22/2017


   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...

   LAT...LON   31088213 33728214 33928060 33927953 33287905 32757901
               32057984 31298080 31018204 31088213 

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