Mesoscale Discussion 0123
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018
Areas affected...portions of western/southwestern Missouri and
adjacent/extreme eastern Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 161919Z - 162115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A couple of thunderstorms may develop over portions of
west-central and southwestern Missouri, and possibly a portion of
far east-central Kansas, over the next couple of hours. While a
briefly severe storm or two could develop, a watch appears unlikely
at this time.
DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery indicates gradually
deepening cumulus within a northwest-to-southeast zone from far
east-central Kansas into parts of southwestern Missouri. The cu
growth is occurring along an occluded/warm front extending from a
low in north-central Kansas east-southeast into the Missouri boot
heel per the latest surface analysis.
West of the cu field into eastern Kansas/eastern Oklahoma, low-level
mixing is occurring, with dewpoints falling through the 40s into the
30s with time, as a dryline now near the
Kansas-Missouri/Oklahoma-Arkansas borders mixes eastward. Between
the dryline and the aforementioned warm front, a narrow 50s
dewpoints warm sector is fueling the cu growth.
As the upper system weakens with time and the surface low fills,
overall weakening of large-scale ascent is anticipated. This
combined with substantial drying/subsidence implied by water vapor
imagery (and confirmed by the 19z SGF RAOB), along with the overall
lack of CAPE, all argue against any more than marginal severe risk.
With that said, shear profiles in the vicinity of the warm front
remain sufficient for updraft rotation, so any more vigorous updraft
that could develop could organize -- and possibly strengthen to
include an attendant risk for gusty winds, marginal hail, or even a
brief, weak tornado. However, at this time it appears that risk
will remain quite confined areally, and likely limited to only a
storm or two at best. As such, ww issuance is not currently
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 37799438 38399503 38709470 38609401 37959280 37259220
37029242 36909321 37199407 37799438