|Mesoscale Discussion 123|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0123
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0558 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017
Areas affected...Eastern GA...southern half of SC
Concerning...Tornado Watch 22...
Valid 222358Z - 230130Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 22 continues.
SUMMARY...Risk for damaging winds and a few tornadoes continues
across Tornado Watch 22, with the greatest risk across the southern
portion of the watch.
DISCUSSION...At 2345Z, widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms
are ongoing across Tornado Watch 22 from eastern GA into southern
SC. The severe threat has been tempered thus far by the inability of
the surface warm front to advance northeastward into the rain-cooled
airmass across much of SC. Strong 2-hour pressure falls of 3-4 mb on
the cool side of the boundary indicate that the warm front is
attempting to advance northward, but there is only a narrow window
of opportunity for this to occur before the primary convective band
moves offshore. This should keep the primary tornado threat across
the southern portion of Tornado Watch 22 from far eastern GA into
southern SC, as indicated by the recent TDS noted in Camden County.
Further north, strongly veering wind profiles with height will
result in a conditional risk of a tornado or locally damaging winds
if any pockets of modest destabilization can evolve with time.
A secondary band of convection along the synoptic cold front will
move into the area later this evening. Thus far, this frontal
convection has been rather weak across south-central GA and buoyancy
will remain limited ahead of this band, but this area will continue
to be monitored for any uptick in intensity, given the strong wind
fields that will persist into tonight.
LAT...LON 31088213 33728214 33928060 33927953 33287905 32757901
32057984 31298080 31018204 31088213
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