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Mesoscale Discussion 123
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0123
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1044 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN LA AND SERN MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 231644Z - 231815Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF SERN LA AND SERN MS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
   INCREASING SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL LATE THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
   A WW WOULD BE NEEDED IN THE SHORT-TERM /BY AROUND NOON CST/...THOUGH
   A MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THE SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE LIKELY
   LATER IN THE DAY.

   DISCUSSION...VIS AND RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
   WITHIN A PLUME OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL WAA OVER THE N GULF WATERS...WELL
   IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP CYCLONE CROSSING PARTS OF N TX. SFC OBS IMPLY A
   STEADY WARMING/MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
   AROUND 64-68F AMIDST POCKETS OF INSOLATION...SUPPORTING MLCAPE
   AROUND 250-750 J/KG AND NEGLIGIBLE MLCINH. DEEPER CONVECTION OVER
   THE N GULF MAY REACH THE COAST IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS...BRINGING SOME SVR RISK ONSHORE. DEEP SHEAR AROUND 40-50 KT
   WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THE LIX VWP PRESENTLY SUGGESTS
   MODEST...THOUGH SUFFICIENT...LOW-LEVEL SRH /AROUND 125 M2 PER S2 IN
   THE 0-1-KM LAYER/ FOR A TORNADO RISK. HOWEVER...THE MASS RESPONSE TO
   STRONG LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS NW OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT A MORE
   OPTIMAL WIND PROFILE LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR TORNADOES -- WITH SOME
   POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES.

   ..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 02/23/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29629198 30239195 30689110 30628940 30158895 29368932
               29119085 29629198 

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Page last modified: February 23, 2016
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