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Mesoscale Discussion 123
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0123
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0145 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH/MID-MS VALLEY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 201945Z - 202145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEWD FROM AR ACROSS THE MS
   VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A PREDOMINANT LINEAR
   MODE WILL TEND TO FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN HAZARD...BUT
   ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOULD YIELD EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE TSTMS HAVE INCREASED WITHIN A
   PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND INTO S-CNTRL AR. AHEAD OF THIS
   ACTIVITY...WIDESPREAD DEEP CLOUDINESS HAS LIMITED INSOLATION AND
   SLOWED DESTABILIZATION. NEVERTHELESS...A PLUME OF 60-63 DEG F
   SURFACE DEW POINTS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. AS THE
   COMPOSITE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE INTERCEPTS THIS PLUME...A DISTINCT
   INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY APPEARS LIKELY IN THE LATE
   AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN STRONG AND EVEN
   STRENGTHEN ON THE SRN FRINGE OF AN INTENSE 500-700 MB JET ROTATING
   THROUGH THE BASE OF THE N-CNTRL CONUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH
   LINEAR MODE AND ATTENDANT SEVERE WIND RISK WILL LIKELY
   DOMINATE...LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND MODEST TEMPERATURE/DEW
   POINT SPREADS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES AS WELL.

   ..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 02/20/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   36759031 37238986 37958903 38158814 37918757 37408764
               35418912 34349013 34379087 35019099 35799083 36759031 

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Page last modified: February 20, 2014
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