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Mesoscale Discussion 124
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0124
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1146 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

   Areas affected...Portions of western Kentucky and vicinity

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 170446Z - 170545Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A localized threat for gusty winds and marginally severe
   hail may exist for a few more hours tonight.

   DISCUSSION...Near a warm front extending from central Missouri
   southeastward to the Tennessee Valley, a small bowing segment has
   organized late this evening. Although these cells are accelerating
   towards cold/stable boundary-layer air, a slow northward advance of
   the warm front may continue to yield a narrow corridor for eastward
   maintenance of these cells across Kentucky for a few more hours.
   Furthermore, strong forced ascent along the leading edge of the line
   may maintain surface-based updrafts, fueling a localized threat for
   strong, gusty winds (especially considering the shallow nature of
   the surface stable layer). 

   A small threat for marginally severe hail may continue as well near
   the intersection of the line with the warm front, as backed
   low-level flow enables more efficient updraft rotation. Of note,
   low-level reflectivity is likely being enhanced by a large number of
   wet, near-severe hailstones, suggested by excessive values of KDP
   (upwards of 10 deg/km), and this agrees with recent reports of hail
   sizes near one inch or less. Regardless, the threat of hail and wind
   should diminish later tonight, as cells outpace any substantive
   buoyancy.

   ..Picca/Thompson.. 03/17/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   36688655 36448750 36338936 36419003 36748999 37278934
               37338797 37288673 36958644 36688655 

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Page last modified: March 17, 2018
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