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Mesoscale Discussion 124
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0124
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1211 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 231811Z - 232015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A MODEST RISK WILL EXIST FOR A FEW INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL
   AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON OVER SERN
   TX. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS REGARDING HOW MANY STORMS IF ANY
   WILL DEVELOP...SO OVERALL THREAT IS SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL. TRENDS
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING IN
   A NARROW CORRIDOR AHEAD OF A SEWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS SERN
   TX. A NARROW ZONE OF CLEARING HAS DEVELOPED BENEATH MID-LEVEL
   DRY-SLOT BEHIND LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT AHEAD OF MAIN VORT MAX.
   ONLY MODIFIED CP AIR WITH LOW 60F DEWPOINTS RESIDE IN PRE-FRONTAL
   WARM SECTOR. THESE FACTORS IN CONJUNCTION WITH COLD TEMPERATURES
   ALOFT WITHIN UPPER JET EXIT REGION WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST MARGINAL
   INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE INCREASING TO 500-800 J/KG. VISIBLE IMAGERY
   SHOWS CUMULUS INCREASING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...BUT IT STILL REMAINS
   UNCERTAIN HOW MANY STORMS WILL INITIATE GIVEN PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL
   DRY SLOT AND TENDENCY FOR LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER TO SWLY AHEAD OF
   THE FRONT. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...THE STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP
   SHEAR WITH LONG HODOGRAPHS AND COLD AIR ALOFT WITH 7-7.5 C/KM
   700-500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING STORMS WITH A
   THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

   ..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 02/23/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

   LAT...LON   29739562 30319537 30969497 30769395 29829383 29599444
               29299503 29409554 29739562 

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Page last modified: February 23, 2016
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