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Mesoscale Discussion 124
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0124
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0311 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX...WRN/NRN LA...SERN AR...NWRN MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 9...

   VALID 202111Z - 202245Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 9 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL RISKS CONTINUE...BUT DAMAGING
   WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A QLCS FROM ERN AR TO
   SERN TX CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AND LIKELY ACCELERATES EWD
   /ESPECIALLY WITH NRN EXTENT/.

   DISCUSSION...21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE COLD FRONT IS ABOUT
   TO MERGE WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND OVER ERN TX WHERE
   CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED SINCE LATE MORNING. WITH SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE
   DOWNSTREAM WARM SECTOR AND MIXING YIELDED DEW POINTS FALLING INTO
   THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...POTENTIAL FOR A STRENGTHENING COLD POOL
   IS APPARENT. WITH PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER MID-LEVEL SWLYS WITH NRN
   EXTENT AND A MORE N/S-ALIGNMENT TO THE FRONT ACROSS THE
   MID-SOUTH...AN INCREASING RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS IS LIKELY
   ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF WW 9 INTO WW 11.

   ..GRAMS.. 02/20/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...

   LAT...LON   30499551 31379446 32189334 33119211 34129110 34229040
               34188953 33998935 33498945 32948990 31459195 30769302
               30349380 30229468 30299523 30499551 

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Page last modified: February 20, 2014
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