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Mesoscale Discussion 126
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0126
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0748 PM CDT MON MAR 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...A SMALL PART OF SERN MS...SERN LA...FAR SWRN AL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 100048Z - 100315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH A DMGG
   WIND GUST OR PERHAPS A WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED
   OUT INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE RISK WILL REMAIN TOO LOW FOR WW
   ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL CLOUD MOTIONS OVER THE N-CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO
   PER PRE-DUSK VIS IMAGERY IMPLY A N/S-ORIENTED CONFLUENCE AXIS
   EXTENDING FROM THE MIDDLE GULF TO THE CHANDELEUR ISLANDS VICINITY.
   ASCENT INVOF THIS AXIS CONTINUES TO FOSTER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
   CONVECTION AROUND 60 NM OFFSHORE EXTENDING INLAND INTO SERN MS --
   WITH LIGHTNING CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR/S OF A MARINE BOUNDARY
   OFFSHORE. WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN LOW-LEVEL MASS FIELDS DURING
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRAIN NNEWD/NEWD
   WITHIN THIS ZONE OF ASCENT. THE PRIMARY MARINE BOUNDARY LIES
   OFFSHORE...AND SHOULD ONLY SLOWLY ADVANCE TOWARD THE COAST DURING
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE BOUNDARY SEPARATES DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
   60S OVER INLAND AREAS WHERE MLCAPE IS NEARLY NEGLIGIBLE...FROM
   MIDDLE/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS OFFSHORE WHERE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SFC-BASED
   BUOYANCY EXISTS. CONVECTION SHOULD STRUGGLE TO BECOME ROOTED IN THE
   NEAR-SFC LAYER AS IT MOVES ONSHORE AND ENCOUNTERS A NOCTURNALLY
   COOLING/STABILIZING PBL.

   HOWEVER...THE MOB VWP SAMPLES SUBSTANTIAL VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL
   WIND PROFILE SUPPORTING AMPLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /AROUND 25 KT OF BULK
   WIND DIFFERENCE IN THE 0-1-KM LAYER/ AND MARKED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH
   CURVATURE. STORM-SCALE CIRCULATIONS ATTENDANT TO HYDRODYNAMIC
   PRESSURE PERTURBATIONS ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE -- WHERE SFC-BASED
   EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYERS EXIST -- MAY ENCOURAGE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR
   AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST AND/OR BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO THROUGHOUT THE
   EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF GREATER SFC-BASED BUOYANCY
   INLAND WITH GROWING STATIC STABILITY WILL BE DETRIMENTAL FOR A MORE
   ROBUST SVR-TSTM RISK.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 03/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   31288815 30458814 29068900 29138949 29808938 31048914
               31318885 31338842 31288815 

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Page last modified: March 10, 2015
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