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Mesoscale Discussion 126
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0126
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0115 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

   Areas affected...portions of central and northern Texas...and
   eastward into the Piney Woods

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 171815Z - 172045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms have begun to develop over portions
   of central Texas, with a gradual increase in coverage and intensity
   expected over the next couple of hours.  Evolving severe risk is
   expected to warrant eventual WW issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows isolated thunderstorms
   developing across portions of central texas at this time, within a
   warm sector east of Concho Valley surface low and associated
   dryline, and south of a warm front extending east-northeast into
   northeast Texas.  A gradually warming/moistening boundary layer is
   observed, with storms initiating where temperatures have reached the
   mid to upper 70s amidst upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints.  

   As high clouds continue to gradually thin over the area and
   additional heating/warming occurs, steep lapse rates aloft will
   support mixed-layer CAPE rising to 2000 J/kg or so, fueling
   additional/more robust surface-based convection as the afternoon
   wears on.  

   While low-level flow should remain somewhat weak, thus likely
   limiting overall wind and tornado risk to some degree, supercells
   are expected given favorably strong mid-level west-southwesterlies
   contributing to surface to 6 KM bulk shear values in excess of 50
   kt.  Along with the aforementioned local risk for a damaging wind
   gust or possibly a tornado, the background environment seems
   particularly favorable for large hail production.  Given this risk,
   expect that WW issuance will become a likelihood within the 2 PM to
   3 PM time frame.

   ..Goss/Guyer.. 03/17/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   30959921 31699964 32269956 32709842 32959698 33069543
               32619487 31819510 31289589 30779848 30959921 

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