|Mesoscale Discussion 126|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0126
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0846 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017
Areas affected...Western SC...extreme NE GA...extreme SW NC
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 230246Z - 230415Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A marginal risk of isolated damaging wind or perhaps a
brief tornado will persist for a few more hours.
DISCUSSION...At 0230Z, A modest increase in convective coverage and
intensity has been noted across far northeast GA into northwest SC.
This has occurred along an occluded frontal boundary that is moving
northeastward in advance of a deep-layer cyclone over northwest GA.
Despite the presence of a cool boundary layer with temperatures in
the 55-60F range, proximity to the midlevel cyclone is supporting
cold temperatures aloft and relatively steep midlevel lapse rates,
resulting in some weak buoyancy along the boundary. Strongly veering
wind profiles with height may support some weak storm rotation,
though the weak buoyancy should continue to limit the overall severe
risk. Regardless, an isolated damaging wind gust or a brief/weak
tornado will be possible until the front clears the region.
LAT...LON 34038290 34398318 34718353 35018414 35328407 35318313
34968246 34288154 33758122 33398171 33478215 33608235
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