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Mesoscale Discussion 127
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0127
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1005 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...IMMEDIATE COAST OF AL/MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 131505Z - 131700Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A WEAKLY ROTATING UPDRAFT MAY ENCROACH UPON THE AL/MS
   COAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A
   BRIEF/LOCALIZED TORNADO-WIND RISK SEEMINGLY EXISTS AS THE CONVECTIVE
   BAND OVER THE SHELF WATERS MOVES ASHORE.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BROKEN BAND OF STORMS FROM NEAR
   THE MS BARRIER ISLANDS SWD THRU 90 MI ESE BVE AS OF 15Z.  WATER
   VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING NWD
   FROM THE NRN GULF INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING AND
   THIS FEATURE SHOULD AID IN ADVANCING A MARITIME FRONT INTO THE
   MOBILE BAY VICINITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  AS A RESULT...A
   WEDGE OF INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR AND DESTABILIZING AIR MASS SHOULD
   PENETRATE THE IMMEDIATE COAST OVER AL AND PERHAPS FAR SERN MS ALONG
   THE COAST.  RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPS NEED TO WARM TO NEAR
   70 DEG F FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SURFACE-BASED
   PARCELS.  A MAXIMIZING IN THE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR
   THROUGH THE MIDDAY TIMEFRAME PER MODEL GUIDANCE /200-300 MS PER S2
   EFFECTIVE SRH/.  DESPITE A CONFINED AND NARROW SPATIOTEMPORAL WINDOW
   OF OPPORTUNITY...A LOCALIZED NONZERO THREAT FOR A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO
   OR STRONG WIND GUST MAY ACCOMPANY A STRONGER CELLULAR UPDRAFT
   EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS AS IT MOVES ASHORE.  GIVEN THE LIMITED SPATIAL AREA
   AND RELATIVELY LOW MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT...THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS
   UNLIKELY.

   ..SMITH/HART.. 03/13/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30218859 30808847 30798768 30218771 30218859 

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Page last modified: March 13, 2015
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