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Mesoscale Discussion 128
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MD 128 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0128
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0506 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

   Areas affected...Portions of middle/eastern TN...northern GA...far
   northeastern AL...and far southwestern NC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 172206Z - 180000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe hail/wind threat may extend to the
   south of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 10. New watch issuance is
   unlikely, but a small local extension of the ongoing Watch southward
   into more of eastern TN is possible.

   DISCUSSION...A couple of thunderstorms have recently strengthened
   across middle TN on the southern fringes of large-scale forcing for
   ascent associated with a shortwave trough moving eastward across the
   OH Valley. This convection currently resides in a relatively better
   thermodynamic environment compared to farther north, as surface
   dewpoints have increased into the low to mid 50s, and temperatures
   have warmed into the mid to upper 70s. MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg along
   with westerly flow strengthening at mid levels should allow for an
   isolated severe hail/wind threat to persist with ongoing convection
   for at least the next several hours. The loss of diurnal heating
   should cause a weakening trend to occur later this evening as this
   activity spreads into northern GA and perhaps far southwestern NC.
   While additional WW issuance is not anticipated, a small local
   extension of WW 10 southward to include more of eastern TN may be
   needed if current trends continue.

   ..Gleason/Thompson.. 03/17/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35498622 35698571 35678495 35498406 35258364 34858376
               34538480 34638568 34878603 35228630 35498622 

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