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Mesoscale Discussion 128
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0128
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0512 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN MAINE

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 151012Z - 151615Z

   SUMMARY...SNOW WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW LASTING THROUGH THE
   MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDLEVEL
   CYCLONE CROSSING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS IT TRACKS EWD TOWARD
   NEW ENGLAND. PRECEDING DCVA IS PRESENTLY OVERTAKING SFC LOW PRESSURE
   ANALYZED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS A RESULT...OFFSHORE
   CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ROBUST DURING THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE THE DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE TAKES A NEWD TRACK
   OVER THE WATERS OFF THE MAINE COAST. AN ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING
   WARM CONVEYOR WILL ENCOURAGE AN INFLUX OF OCEAN-MODIFIED AIR INTO
   THE NRN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE ALONG ISENTROPICALLY ASCENDING
   TRAJECTORIES. SFC PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 2-3 MB PER 2 HOURS HIGHLIGHT
   THE ONGOING WARM-ADVECTION REGIME PRESENTLY SUPPORTING AREAS OF
   SNOW.

   HOWEVER...WITH FURTHER INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION DURING THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS...SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...WITH
   RATES OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES PER HOUR EXPECTED TO BECOME COMMON BY AROUND
   11-13Z. FAVORABLY DEEP/MOIST DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES JUXTAPOSED WITH
   THE STRENGTHENING ASCENT AMIDST SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
   THE TROPOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT SUCH RATES. AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL
   LIKELY LINGER THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...WITH SNOWFALL TAPERING OFF IN
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

   ..COHEN.. 03/15/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

   LAT...LON   46647003 46816879 46466780 45506744 44706720 44616799
               45116962 45737045 46647003 

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Page last modified: March 15, 2015
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