MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0129
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0516 PM CST SAT FEB 09 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE...ERN OK PANHANDLE...WRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 092316Z - 100115Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE SOME
   THIS EVENING...BUT VERY MARGINAL BUOYANCY WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE
   STORM RISK.  A WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY THIS EVENING...BUT
   THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   DISCUSSION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY PEAKED FROM THE
   CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE NWD INTO WRN KS...RESULTING IN STEEP LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ALONG THE DRYLINE. 
   HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED IN THE NARROW WARM
   SECTOR E OF THE DRYLINE...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE
   LOW 20S NEAR GLD TO THE MID 40S NEAR CDS.  WEAK SURFACE-BASED
   BUOYANCY IS CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND S OF I-40...THOUGH SOME NWD
   DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY
   SPREADS NWD.  
   
   THE EJECTING MIDLEVEL TROUGH/SPEED MAX IS ROUGHLY COINCIDENT WITH
   THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE ERN NM/TX BORDER.  THE COLD
   FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE BY ABOUT 02-03Z...WHICH WILL HELP
   MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT.  THUS...A FEW LOW-TOPPED
   THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT IN THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS AS MOISTURE INCREASES SOME.  STILL...VERY WEAK BUOYANCY IN
   THE FACE OF VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE
   POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS AND ANY ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER
   RISK...AND A WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE NECESSARY.
   
   ..THOMPSON/KERR.. 02/09/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...
   
   LAT...LON   34840037 34340044 34060083 34090121 35060125 36000140
               36670153 37790165 38540166 39250171 39520155 39590123
               39350097 38640075 37020070 34840037