|Mesoscale Discussion 129|
< Previous MD Next MD >
Mesoscale Discussion 0129
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0525 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018
Areas affected...central through north central Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 9...
Valid 172225Z - 180030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 9 continues.
SUMMARY...Threat for primarily isolated large hail and damaging wind
gusts is expected to persist through early evening across a part of
central through north central Texas. The greatest severe threat next
few hours is expected over the southern portion of WW 9.
DISCUSSION...Early this evening a cluster of storms persists across
the north central Texas area. Outflow boundary produced by the
storms extends from near Temple westward to just west of LLano where
it intersects a north-south oriented dryline. The boundary layer
over much of the northern two thirds of WW 9 has been stabilized by
convective outflow, but the warm sector south of the outflow
boundary remains moderately unstable with 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. A modest
southerly low-level jet will migrate through central TX this evening
in association with a progressive, low-amplitude shortwave trough.
This will maintain influx of moist and unstable air with storms
developing along the southern flank of the outflow boundary. Other
storms developing farther west at intersection of the dryline and
western extent of the outflow boundary could also increase. Vertical
wind profiles with effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt will
promote some organized storm structures including supercells and
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 30959882 31259868 31489762 32329645 32479549 31649544
30999561 30809645 30819768 30959882
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home