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Mesoscale Discussion 129
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0129
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0429 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL / W-CNTRL FL PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 232229Z - 232330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE NEED FOR A TORNADO WATCH IS UNCERTAIN PRIOR TO THE
   ACTIVITY FROM THE WEST MOVING INTO THE AREA.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY DURING THE PAST 1-2 HOURS HAS SHOWN
   SHALLOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE FL
   PANHANDLE NWD INTO SERN AL.  MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS VOID OF
   LIGHTNING YET THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR
   A FEW UPDRAFTS TO INTENSIFY AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES ACROSS
   THE REGION.  COINCIDENT WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE UPWARD VERTICAL
   MOTION...THE WIND PROFILE IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY CONSIDERABLY
   DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.  AS SUCH...LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE
   POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION PERSISTS BEYOND
   THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES OF WHETHER THE
   ACTIVITY OVER SERN AL/FL PANHANDLE INTENSIFIES FURTHER AND POSES A
   SEVERE THREAT...A TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE REQUIRED EARLIER
   THAN ANTICIPATED BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE STORMS MOVING INTO
   THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

   ..SMITH/HART.. 02/23/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   31988681 32318588 32068524 31288527 30268598 30488675
               31988681 

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Page last modified: February 23, 2016
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