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Mesoscale Discussion 129
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0129
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0525 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

   Areas affected...central through north central Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 9...

   Valid 172225Z - 180030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 9 continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for primarily isolated large hail and damaging wind
   gusts is expected to persist through early evening across a part of
   central through north central Texas. The greatest severe threat next
   few hours is expected over the southern portion of WW 9.

   DISCUSSION...Early this evening a cluster of storms persists across
   the north central Texas area. Outflow boundary produced by the
   storms extends from near Temple westward to just west of LLano where
   it intersects a north-south oriented dryline. The boundary layer
   over much of the northern two thirds of WW 9 has been stabilized by
   convective outflow, but the warm sector south of the outflow
   boundary remains moderately unstable with 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. A modest
   southerly low-level jet will migrate through central TX this evening
   in association with a progressive, low-amplitude shortwave trough.
   This will maintain influx of moist and unstable air with storms
   developing along the southern flank of the outflow boundary. Other
   storms developing farther west at intersection of the dryline and
   western extent of the outflow boundary could also increase. Vertical
   wind profiles with effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt will
   promote some organized storm structures including supercells and
   bowing segments.

   ..Dial.. 03/17/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   30959882 31259868 31489762 32329645 32479549 31649544
               30999561 30809645 30819768 30959882 

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