MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0130
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1112 PM CST SAT FEB 09 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND N CENTRAL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 100512Z - 100715Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
   THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH
   ISSUANCE BY 06-07Z.
   
   DISCUSSION...A BAND OF WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWLY
   EXPANDING/STRENGTHENING FROM ROUGHLY SJT TO SPS.  THE CONVECTION
   APPEARS TO BE FORMING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MIDLEVEL HEIGHT
   FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH EJECTING ENEWD OVER THE
   SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...COINCIDENT WITH A 50-55 KT SSWLY LLJ AXIS AND
   THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT.  ASCENT AND
   MOISTENING ALONG THIS CORRIDOR APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING THE CAP NOTED
   IN 00Z OBSERVED AND SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SUCH THAT
   THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
   MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO SPREAD NWD FROM
   CENTRAL INTO N TX WHERE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN
   INCREASING BY 1-2 F PER HOUR.  WITH INSTABILITY BECOMING ROOTED AT
   OR VERY NEAR THE SURFACE...THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL
   FAVOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED
   ROTATING STORMS.  AT THIS TIME...THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS APPEAR
   TO BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW STRONG/DAMAGING
   GUSTS...AND THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE
   POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
   
   ..THOMPSON/KERR.. 02/10/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...
   
   LAT...LON   33519660 32779675 31319800 30939871 30969956 31359994
               31989962 33419863 33719821 33899789 33829698 33519660