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Mesoscale Discussion 132
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0132
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0651 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SWRN AL / WRN FL PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 20...

   VALID 240051Z - 240145Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 20 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SIGNIFICANT TORNADO POTENTIAL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO
   NEAR THE AL/FL PANHANDLE BORDER.

   DISCUSSION...KMOB IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A CYCLIC --LIKELY TORNADIC--
   SUPERCELL OVER THE SHELF WATERS S OF MOBILE BAY DURING THE PAST
   HOUR.  THIS INTENSE SUPERCELL HAS DEVELOPED AND MANAGED TO BECOME
   THE ANCHORING UPDRAFT WITHIN A WARM SECTOR CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. 
   SURFACE CONDITIONS INVOF THE SUPERCELL VIA BUOY AND LAND
   OBSERVATIONS /NEAR 70 TEMP WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINT/ SUGGEST THIS
   SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL WILL LIKELY REMAIN SURFACE-BASED FOR AT
   LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS VIA MODEL-BASED PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS. 
   THE VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NOW EVIDENT ON THE KMOB VAD /0-3 KM
   SRH AROUND 600 M2 PER S2/ WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED CYCLING OF
   THE SUPERCELL AS IT MOVES ASHORE THE AL/FL BORDER VICINITY DURING
   THE NEXT HOUR.

   ..SMITH.. 02/24/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MOB...

   LAT...LON   29968818 30628757 30718723 30388702 29828793 29808817
               29968818 

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Page last modified: February 24, 2016
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