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Mesoscale Discussion 133
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0133
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0956 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN MS...WRN AL...CENTRAL/ERN
   LA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 15...17...

   VALID 210356Z - 210600Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 15...17...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SVR THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
   ACROSS REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW 15 AND 17 WITH DAMAGING WINDS
   LIKELY...ALONG WITH EMBEDDED MESOVORTEX TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH
   BOWING SEGMENTS.

   DISCUSSION...STG/SVR TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS WW 15 AND WW 17 AT 0345Z
   IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NWRN MS SWD ACROSS WRN LA.
   THE ENVIRONMENT IN ADVANCE OF THE TSTMS CONTINUES TO BE STRONGLY
   SHEARED AND WITH MODERATE BUOYANCY /MUCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG/.
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
   OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SVR TSTMS IN
   LINES AND SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAMAGING
   WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT SVR THREAT...HOWEVER
   TORNADOES WILL REMAIN A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WITH LOW-LEVEL QLCS
   CIRCULATIONS WITHIN SQUALL LINES OWING TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AS
   SAMPLED BY KLIX AND KBHM VWP DATA. 

   STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE SVR THREAT
   SHIFTING EWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
   FRONT.

   ..BUNTING/CORFIDI.. 02/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29189222 29319297 29419349 29869343 30399298 31369196
               31999125 32409061 33398924 33468876 33528751 33268704
               32278716 31918731 29359016 29359016 29189222 

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Page last modified: February 21, 2014
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