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Mesoscale Discussion 133
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0133
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0233 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

   Areas affected...Western north Texas and far southwest/south-central

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 181933Z - 182130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may develop across portions of
   western north Texas and far southwest Oklahoma over the next several
   hours. Any thunderstorm that develops should move generally east
   toward the I-35 corridor, posing a risk for large hail and strong
   winds, although a tornado or two will be possible with any sustained

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery indicates thinning/clearing
   clouds across western north Texas in the wake of morning
   clouds/precipitation. Strong heating in the wake of the clouds has
   allowed for cumulus development on the dryline near its intersection
   with a weak surface front that extends northeast into southern
   Oklahoma. Additional cumulus development is noted along the
   aforementioned surface front as far northeast as far southwest

   Current indications are that afternoon insolation will combine with
   continued low-level moistening to allow for isolated thunderstorms
   to develop out of these increasingly agitated cumulus fields over
   the next several hours. Steep/steepening midlevel-lapse rates will
   support most-unstable CAPE ranging from 1000-2500 J/kg at the same
   time a strong mid-level jet moves across the region supporting
   effective-layer shear on the order of 50-70 knots. This environment
   will support a supercell threat with any thunderstorm that can
   develop and become sustained. Large hail and strong winds will be
   the primary threats initially. The tornado threat will slowly
   increase this evening as the low-level jet increases and storms move
   east into the better low-level moisture.

   ..Marsh/Guyer.. 03/18/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   31759992 32640021 33929986 34509876 34489792 34379735
               33889705 32919684 32279704 31559760 31439896 31759992 

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