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Mesoscale Discussion 135
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0135
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1244 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CNTRL AND SERN  GA...INTO THE FLORIDA
   PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 23...24...

   VALID 240644Z - 240845Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 23...24...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN AT LEAST
   MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE TO THE RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND/OR
   ISOLATED TORNADOES ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...BEFORE PERHAPS
   DIMINISHING TOWARD 09Z.  THE NEED FOR ANOTHER WATCH EAST OF WWS 23
   AND 24 IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

   DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PERSISTS AND APPEARS
   ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH A PRE-COLD FRONTAL WIND SHIFT/CONFLUENCE ZONE
   NEAR A 50-60+ KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET AXIS.  THROUGH 09-11Z...THIS
   LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STEADILY SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE
   SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...AS THE EXIT
   REGION OF A 100 KT CYCLONIC 500 MB JET NOSES ACROSS CENTRAL
   ALABAMA...TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

   WITH TIME /BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 09Z/...MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT
   LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY BECOME THE PREDOMINANT FORCING FOR
   MAINTAINING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BENEATH THE DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW. 
   IN RESPONSE...STRONGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INLAND OF COASTAL AREAS
   MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY ROOTED ABOVE A SATURATED NEAR SURFACE LAYER
   CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK LAPSE RATES.  AS THIS OCCURS...THE RISK FOR
   TORNADOES SEEMS LIKELY TO DIMINISH.  THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND
   GUSTS BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCLEAR AS WELL.  BUT IT MAY NOT BE OUT
   OF THE QUESTION THAT HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING COULD STILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO DOWNWARD MIXING OF THE HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO THE
   SURFACE.

   ..KERR.. 02/24/2016


   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29488518 30118517 30828463 31368403 31928375 32488357
               33158317 33038233 32348153 31448145 30658220 30018367
               29768433 29488463 29488518 

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Page last modified: February 24, 2016
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