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Mesoscale Discussion 136
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0136
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0722 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2017

   Areas affected...Part of northern New York downwind of Lake Ontario

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 291322Z - 291715Z

   SUMMARY...A persistent band of heavy snow will produce snowfall
   rates around 2 inches per hour through the morning before
   diminishing later today.

   DISCUSSION...Radar imagery depicts a narrow east-west oriented band
   of heavy snow across part of northern NY downwind of Lake Ontario.
   The 12Z sounding from BUF shows nearly uniform westerly winds from
   the surface to 500 mb. The favorable orientation of westerly low-
   and mid-level winds is creating a long fetch across Lake Ontario,
   and with steep low-level lapse rates present over the lake, snowfall
   rates of 2 inches/hour, locally higher, should continue to occur for
   at least the next few hours in the most intense portions of the snow
   band. Recent radar imagery from KTYX has also shown some areas of
   higher reflectivities (40-45 dBZ) in occasional cellular structures
   across northern Oswego County. Later today the low-level flow is
   forecast to weaken somewhat and veer to northwesterly, which should
   result in a gradual reduction in snowfall rates.

   ..Gleason.. 01/29/2017


   ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   43837658 43867577 43807502 43637484 43447508 43357567
               43367644 43447687 43637682 43837658 

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Page last modified: January 29, 2017
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