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Mesoscale Discussion 136
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0136
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0237 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AND E-CNTRL MO...CNTRL IL

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 240837Z - 241330Z

   SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING ONE INCH PER HOUR WILL BE
   POSSIBLE FROM SERN MO INTO CNTRL IL THROUGH 13Z. STRONG WIND GUSTS
   WILL ALSO CREATE LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF
   PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM SRN MO NEWD ALONG/N OF THE OH
   VALLEY...TO THE N/W OF A SFC LOW ANALYZED NEAR THE WRN TN/KY BORDER
   AS OF O8Z. OBSERVED SFC TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID-30S F...BUT A
   CHANGEOVER TO SNOW HAS BEEN NOTED WITHIN THE MORE INTENSE AND NEARLY
   STATIONARY DEFORMATION BAND W OF STL INTO CNTRL IL. BOTH OBSERVED
   AND FORECAST TEMPERATURE TRENDS SUGGEST GRADUAL COOLING WILL
   CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z...AND SHOULD RESULT IN PRIMARILY HEAVY SNOW
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. THE HIGHEST RATES ARE
   EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD WITH TIME ACROSS CNTRL IL AND SERN
   MO...AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE SLOWLY REORIENTS TO THE W OF A MIDLEVEL
   DRY SLOT ENTERING ERN IL/WRN IND. THE STRONGEST LOW-MID-LEVEL
   FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN MAXIMIZED TO THE NE OF THE HIGHLIGHTED
   AREA...BUT THE PERSISTENCE OF THE SLOW-MOVING BAND SHOULD SUPPORT
   3-4 HRS OF NEAR ONE-INCH PER HR SNOWFALL RATES. ADDITIONALLY...NLY
   WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL CREATE SUBSTANTIAL REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.

   ..ROGERS.. 02/24/2016


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   39538971 39808921 39818860 39578828 38738878 37658983
               36799098 36789139 36929166 37439158 38369109 39139017
               39538971 

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Page last modified: February 24, 2016
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