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Mesoscale Discussion 136
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0136
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0627 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

   Areas affected...eastern Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles and western
   Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 182327Z - 190200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few thunderstorms might become capable of producing
   strong wind gusts and hail this evening from the eastern Texas and
   Oklahoma Panhandles into far western OK. Overall threat appears too
   marginal for a WW.

   DISCUSSION...Early this evening a narrow corridor of marginal
   instability (500 J/kg MUCAPE) exists over the eastern TX and OK
   Panhandles east of a dryline supported by the advection of steep
   mid-level lapse rates above modest low-level moisture. High based
   shallow convection is developing from southwest KS into the
   north-central TX Panhandle within zone of ascent accompanying a
   progressive shortwave trough. As this band of ascent continues east
   and interacts with the more unstable environment east of dryline,
   additional, slightly more robust updrafts might develop. Some of
   this activity might become capable of producing hail and a few
   strong wind gusts, but the thermodynamic environment appears too
   marginal for a more substantial severe threat.

   ..Dial/Thompson.. 03/18/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34999992 35050048 35820083 36920078 37099991 36319954
               35339956 34999992 

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