MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0136
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0620 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EAST TX INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 101220Z - 101345Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR ADDITIONAL
   PORTIONS OF EAST TX INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN LA...INCLUDING A PARTIAL
   UPGRADE OF CURRENT SEVERE TSTM WATCH 30. TORNADO POTENTIAL IS
   EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE/DEVELOP GENERALLY EASTWARD THROUGH
   THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
   
   DISCUSSION...AHEAD OF AN ONGOING SQUALL LINE /AND IMMEDIATELY
   PRECEDING SUPERCELLS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL TX/...THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
   EXPECTED TO STEADILY MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE THIS MORNING FROM FAR
   EASTERN TX INTO LA. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE AS A WARM FRONT
   DEVELOPS NORTHWARD ACROSS LA...WITH LOWER/MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ESTABLISHED WITHIN THE WARM
   SECTOR BY MIDDAY. SAMPLING THE SOURCE REGION AIRMASS NEAR/OFF THE
   COAST...THE 12Z OBSERVED LAKE CHARLES SOUNDING WAS INDICATIVE OF
   RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WITH A 69F SURFACE LOW AND MEAN
   MIXING RATIO NEAR 14 G/KG...WITH LITTLE INHIBITION AND MLCAPE OF
   1500 J/KG. STRONG SHEAR/LOW LEVEL SRH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
   ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/BOWS WITH ASSOCIATED
   TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL FROM EAST TX INTO LA.
   
   ..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 02/10/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...
   
   LAT...LON   31279514 31649521 32249462 32709255 32649114 32109108
               31299156 30479249 30449410 30579590 31279514