MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0138
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1019 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX...NRN AND CNTRL LA THROUGH WCNTRL MS
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 31...
   
   VALID 101619Z - 101745Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 31 CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST
   ACROSS REMAINING PART OF WW 31 WITH GREATEST TORNADO THREAT NEXT
   COUPLE HOURS FROM A SMALL PORTION OF SERN TX...INTO WCNTRL THROUGH
   NERN LA. NRN END OF SQUALL LINE MOVING INTO WCNTRL MS MAY POSE AT
   MODEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS...BUT THREAT DOES NOT
   APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW AT THIS TIME.
   
   DISCUSSION...SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
   SEGMENTS EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SERN AR...NRN LA INTO SERN TX MOVING
   EAST AT 25-35 KT...WITH FASTER MOVEMENT ALONG NRN END. WARM FRONT
   EXTENDS FROM SERN LA NWWD INTO NERN LA WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE QLCS.
   A 50+ KT SSWLY LLJ WILL PERSIST OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY MUCH OF
   TODAY...MAINTAINING INFLUX OF RICH GULF MOISTURE. AS WARM FRONT
   LIFTS NWD...DEWPOINTS MAY RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S AS FAR NORTH
   AS SCNTRL MS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED BY
   PERSISTENT INFLOW OF RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
   ALONG LEADING COLD POOL. LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
   WILL PERSIST IN THE WARM SECTOR SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
   SEGMENTS WITHIN THE LINE. INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL TRAIN NEWD WHILE THE
   LINE ADVANCES MORE SLOWLY EWD. CLOUD BREAKS ARE OCCURRING OVER SWRN
   LA...AND INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS IS LIKELY AS THE NEAR SFC LAYER
   CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE.
   
   NRN END OF LINE MOVING INTO WRN MS IS NORTH OF WARM FRONT WHERE THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TOO STABLE FOR A TORNADO THREAT AT THE
   CURRENT TIME. HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS. TORNADO THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM SRN THROUGH SCNTRL MS THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..DIAL/MEAD.. 02/10/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...
   
   LAT...LON   30369416 31399415 32199283 33169132 33669110 33598994
               32808995 32299099 31529152 30979173 30269209 30369416