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Mesoscale Discussion 138
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0138
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0333 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL...FL PANHANDLE...SWRN THROUGH CNTRL AND
   NERN GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 21...

   VALID 210933Z - 211100Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 21
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND SHOULD PERSIST NEXT COUPLE
   HOURS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE THROUGH SERN AL...SWRN...CNTRL AND NERN
   GA.

   DISCUSSION...EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE PERSISTS FROM THE WRN FL
   PANHANDLE NEWD THROUGH NRN GA AND IS MOVING EAST AT 30-35 KT.
   NUMEROUS BUT MOSTLY UNORGANIZED SEMI-DISCRETE AND CLUSTERS OF STORMS
   HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE.
   WITH TIME SOME OF THE LEADING ACTIVITY COULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE
   INTO THE PRIMARY LINE AS IT DEVELOPS EWD. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
   SHOWS A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN MUCAPE FROM ERN GA INTO WRN SC. THIS
   SUGGESTS THE STORMS MIGHT EVENTUALLY UNDERGO TEMPORARY WEAKENING
   BEFORE RE-STRENGTHENING AFTER COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
   TRAJECTORIES OFF THE GULF STREAM LATER THIS MORNING. THE STRONG /60
   KT/ EWD MIGRATING SLY LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO AUGMENT CONVERGENCE ALONG
   THE ADVANCING COLD POOL...HELPING TO SUSTAIN ACTIVITY NEXT FEW
   HOURS. LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT INCLUDE
   PRESENCE OF NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER AND WEAK INSTABILITY.
   NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL REMAIN PROBABLE THROUGH
   THE EARLY MORNING.

   ..DIAL.. 02/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30698503 30438732 31628591 33978460 34198316 33008324
               30698503 

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Page last modified: February 21, 2014
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