Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 138
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 138 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0138
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1056 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL/SERN KS AND SWRN/W-CNTRL MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 251556Z - 251830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH ISOLATED
   MARGINALLY SVR HAIL IS INCREASING LATE THIS MORNING...WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE NEED FOR A WW IS
   PRESENTLY UNLIKELY...THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS THE NWD RETURN OF
   PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION VIA THE NWD
   SPREAD OF A STRATUS PLUME FROM NRN/ERN OK INTO SRN KS. THIS
   AIR...CHARACTERIZED BY A LOWEST-100-MB MEAN MIXING RATIO OF 10.3
   G/KG PER THE 12Z OUN RAOB...IS ISENTROPICALLY ASCENDING ATOP A NWD
   SLOPING FRONT. THE FRONT INTERSECTS THE SFC APPROXIMATELY E/W ACROSS
   NRN/CNTRL OK. WITH A DIURNALLY DESTABILIZING FEED OF AIR ROOTED
   NEAR/S OF THE BOUNDARY...AND INCREASING FORCING FOR
   ASCENT/FRONTOGENESIS PRECEDING A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE CROSSING W TX
   BASED ON MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY...AN UPTICK OF PRIMARILY ELEVATED
   CONVECTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS IS
   ALREADY EVIDENT FROM COWLEY COUNTY TO LABETTE COUNTY KS WHERE
   INCIPIENT RADAR RETURNS ARE EVIDENT.

   WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY THE 12Z DDC RAOB -- I.E.
   THE MANIFESTATION OF AN EML OVERLYING THE RETURNING LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE -- MUCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION.
   THIS...COUPLED WITH 45-60 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...WILL BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED ELEVATED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
   ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL DEVELOPING IN SRN KS AND TRACKING EWD
   INTO MO.

   HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYERS ARE
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE S OF THE MCD AREA -- PRIMARILY
   RELEGATED TO AREAS NEAR/S OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT.
   CONFIDENCE IN MORE ROBUST BUOYANCY...AND SFC-BASED CONVECTION...ARE
   TOO LIMITED TO SUBSTANTIATE HIGHER WW PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
   HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..COHEN/BUNTING.. 03/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   37739823 38299633 38299403 37969245 37419245 37369319
               37299572 37199804 37739823 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: March 25, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities