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Mesoscale Discussion 138
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0138
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1133 AM CST Wed Feb 01 2017

   Areas affected...North Central New York

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 011733Z - 012330Z

   SUMMARY...Ongoing lake-effect snow band off of Lake Ontario
   responsible for snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour since early morning
   may be disrupted by mid afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...An organized lake-effect snow band has produced
   snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour to the east of Lake Ontario since
   early morning within seasonably cold unidirectional westerly flow.
   The large scale signal suggests a short-wave trough moving through
   the broad cyclonic flow (currently over Michigan), and associated
   drying and increase in directional low-level shear, will likely
   disrupt the organization of the snow band sometime overnight.
   However, a small-scale perturbation currently moving onto the
   northwestern shore of Lake Ontario -- possibly induced/enhanced by
   heat fluxes from Lake Huron and Georgian Bay -- may disrupt the snow
   band organization much earlier.  While a circulation associated with
   the perturbation is becoming harder to identify, the veering surface
   winds at multiple stations over southern Ontario suggest the
   perturbation could disrupt the snow band by 20-21z, as suggested by
   recent HRRR forecasts.  Snow fall rates may fall to below 1" per
   hour while the perturbation influences the flow.

   ..Coniglio.. 02/01/2017


   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   43887616 43897572 43867528 43717519 43557529 43437551
               43367577 43327612 43337664 43407673 43757658 43887616 

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