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Mesoscale Discussion 139
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0139
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0714 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN GA...WRN CAROLINAS...ERN TN...WRN
   VA...ERN KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 241314Z - 241515Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CROSSING PARTS OF
   THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY THIS MORNING WILL HAVE THE
   POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF
   TORNADO. WW ISSUANCE IS PRESENTLY UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MULTIPLE IMPULSES
   PIVOTING AROUND THE ERN SEMICIRCLE OF A MID-LEVEL CYCLONE WHOSE
   CENTER IS CROSSING THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ASCENT RELATED TO THESE
   IMPULSES IS SUPPORTING MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS -- GENERALLY
   SHALLOW -- FROM PARTS OF NRN GA TO ERN TN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
   CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD/NEWD DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN AN
   ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY A DEARTH OF BUOYANCY. THE 12Z RAOB AT
   FFC SAMPLED NOTABLE STABLE LAYERS ABOVE H7 THAT WILL RESTRICT
   CONVECTIVE DEPTH/INTENSITY. HOWEVER...WITH SOME STEEPENING OF
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RELATED TO POCKETS OF DIURNAL DIABATIC SFC
   HEATING...PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT MAY BECOME
   LOCALLY ENHANCED AMIDST 40-60 KT OF FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL.
   SPORADIC DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO...MAY OCCUR
   THIS MORNING...THOUGH THE PAUCITY OF BUOYANCY SHOULD PRECLUDE A MORE
   SUBSTANTIAL SVR RISK.

   ..COHEN/GOSS.. 02/24/2016


   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...

   LAT...LON   34058444 34688442 35848416 37028404 37788318 37538212
               36318178 34828232 34208290 33828386 34058444 

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Page last modified: February 24, 2016
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