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Mesoscale Discussion 139
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0139
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0108 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

   Areas affected...South-Central/Southeast
   OK...North-Central/Northeast TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 190608Z - 190815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Large hail is possible with the rapidly developing storms
   across south-central/southeast OK and north-central/northeast TX.
   Limited temporal duration and areal extent of the threat is expected
   to preclude the need for a watch.

   DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar imagery has shown increased
   reflectivity across south-central OK and adjacent far north-central
   TX over the past half hour. Cooling cloud-tops have also been noted
   within GOES-16 IR imagery. This development appears to be on the
   leading edge of a low-amplitude, fast-moving shortwave trough
   rotating around the parent upper system over the TX Panhandle.
   Adding to the forcing for ascent is the approaching Pacific cold
   front (analyzed from west of OKC southward to about 50 mi
   east-southeast of SPS to southwestward through the TX Hill Country)
   and subtle pre-frontal troughing. 

   Given the elevated instability (sampled well by the 00Z FWD
   sounding) and strong vertical shear, these storms are expected to
   rapidly strengthen and pose a hail risk for portions of
   south-central/southeast OK and north-central/northeast TX. The
   anticipated short duration (i.e. about 3 hours) and limited areal
   extent is expected to preclude the need for a watch.

   ..Mosier/Edwards.. 03/19/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34619700 35059674 35229612 35099541 34679515 33879529
               33239560 32889662 33299738 34619700 

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Page last modified: March 19, 2018
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