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Mesoscale Discussion 140
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0140
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0214 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

   Areas affected...North-Central/Northeast
   OK...South-Central/Southeast KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 190714Z - 190915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated hail possible for the next several hours across
   portions of north-central/northeast OK and south-central/southeast
   KS.

   DISCUSSION...Strong forcing for ascent and continued warm-air
   advection across the frontal zone have contributed to a persistence
   of the elevated convection ongoing across north-central OK and
   south-central/southeast KS during the past several hours. In fact,
   regional radar imagery has shown an increase in coverage over the
   past hour, likely a result of continued forcing for ascent as the
   system shifts eastward into better moisture. 

   Steep mid-level lapse rates still exist across much of the region
   and recent mesoanalysis estimated MUCAPE is around 1000 J/kg. Strong
   vertical shear is also in place, with VAD wind profiles from INX
   sampling over 60 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear and mesoanalysis estimating
   effective bulk shear around 40 to 50 kt. This type of environment
   supports hail, particularly in new, more cellular development.
   General expectation is for these storms to persist, gradually
   shifting eastward over the next few hours, with occasional instances
   of hail possible.

   ..Mosier.. 03/19/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   36389808 36979894 37759787 37929528 36959458 36629547
               36389808 

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Page last modified: March 19, 2018
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