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Mesoscale Discussion 140
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0140
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0145 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL INTO NERN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 251845Z - 252115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY BETWEEN
   21-23Z FROM CENTRAL INTO NERN OK. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
   BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS CONTINUED WARMING AND
   DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION S OF THE PRIMARY FRONT WHICH
   EXTENDS FROM W-CNTRL INTO NERN OK AS OF 18Z. TEMPERATURES ARE
   WARMING TO ABOVE 80 F WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING NEAR 60 F. GIVEN VERY
   COLD PROFILES ALOFT...THIS IS CREATING SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY WITH
   LARGE LIFTED INDICES.

   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING RAPIDLY
   EWD ACROSS SWRN OK. CU FIELDS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH
   A CAPPING INVERSION STILL EXISTS. HOWEVER...INCREASING FORCING FOR
   ASCENT AS WELL AS HEATING MAY BREAK THE CAP ALONG THE DRYLINE...WITH
   MIDLEVEL CONVECTION POSSIBLY HELPING TO INITIATE NEW DEVELOPMENT
   DOWNSTREAM. ONE POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT THIS WAVE MOVES
   THROUGH TOO EARLY RELATIVE TO CAP EROSION...WITH RELATIVE SUBSIDENCE
   POSSIBLE BEHIND. NONETHELESS...SEVERE HAIL AND WIND ARE POSSIBLE.

   TO THE N...A MORE FOCUSED ZONE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS ALONG THE
   FRONT. INCREASING CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN
   SEVERE STORMS TRAINING NEWD ACROSS OK AND EVENTUALLY INTO SWRN
   MO/NWRN AR. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUGGEST BOTH
   SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH ANY TORNADO THREAT
   DEPENDENT ON STORM MODE. WIND-DRIVEN HAIL APPEARS LIKELY AS WELL.
   LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT STORMS MAY QUICKLY BECOME
   OUTFLOW-DOMINANT...BUT AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO COULD STILL OCCUR
   ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

   ..JEWELL/BUNTING.. 03/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35789842 36919653 37209577 37229512 36969474 36399454
               35929451 35669472 35359516 35069564 34439657 34199735
               34369831 34879870 35579864 35789842 

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Page last modified: March 25, 2015
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