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Mesoscale Discussion 140
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0140
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0736 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN FL

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 25...

   VALID 241336Z - 241500Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 25 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SVR RISK CONTINUES ACROSS REMAINING-VALID PORTIONS OF
   WW 25. WHILE SOME ISOLATED SVR RISK MAY CONTINUE BEYOND 15Z AND
   COULD EXTEND OUTSIDE OF WW 25 IN THE SHORT TERM...NEW WW ISSUANCE IS
   NOT IMMINENTLY EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...A RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 66-70F SFC
   DEWPOINTS IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS EXTENDING
   FROM COASTAL GA TO THE E-CNTRL GULF. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
   TO TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE MORNING AND CONTINUE TO OFFER ISOLATED
   SVR POTENTIAL. THE 12Z TBW RAOB SAMPLED AROUND 500-750 J/KG OF
   MLCAPE WITH A LONG/CURVED HODOGRAPH CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING
   LOW-LEVEL...STORM-SCALE CIRCULATIONS. SOME TORNADO/DMGG-WIND RISK
   WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 25 IN THE SHORT-TERM AND COULD EXTEND
   EWD...AS WELL. HOWEVER...A DENSE/THICK CANOPY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
   CLOUDS STUNTING INLAND DIURNAL HEATING WILL LIMIT GAINS IN BUOYANCY.
   FURTHERMORE...STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS DISPLACED TO THE N/NW
   OF THE LOCAL AREA. AS SUCH...ANY SVR RISK SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED IN
   THE SHORT-TERM.

   ..COHEN.. 02/24/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   27398262 28758257 30088204 30108143 28638115 27408116
               26978139 26848173 26868223 27398262 

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Page last modified: February 24, 2016
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