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Mesoscale Discussion 140
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0140
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0757 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL VA THROUGH CNTRL AND SERN NC AND NERN SC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 211357Z - 211500Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH NERN SC...CNTRL NC
   AND CNTRL VA THROUGH THE MORNING. DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES
   WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 15Z.

   DISCUSSION...BROKEN LINE OF LOWER TOPPED CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM
   SWRN VA THROUGH WCNTRL NC MOVING EAST AT AROUND 35 KT. DOWNSTREAM
   FROM THE LINE A WARM FRONT HAS BEEN ADVANCING NWD THROUGH VA WITH
   DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE 12Z RAOBS
   FROM GREENSBORO NC AND CHARLESTON SC SHOW ONLY A VERY SHALLOW
   NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER AS WELL AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL INVERSION
   CENTERED AROUND 600 MB. THOUGH DIABATIC WARMING WILL BE TEMPERED BY
   WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEBRIS...TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW 70S WILL
   BE NEEDED TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED PARCELS. WITH TIME THE MID-LEVEL
   INVERSION WILL ALSO LIKELY BE ELIMINATED AS ZONE OF DEEP ASCENT
   ALONG THE CONVEYOR BELT SHIFTS EWD. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
   AS THEY ENCOUNTER GREATER INSTABILITY /UP TO 1000 J/KG MUCAPE/.
   STRONG 0-1 KM SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIGRATORY 60 KT SLY LLJ AND
   STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRUCTURES WITHIN
   THE LINE...INCLUDING EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES AND BOWING SEGMENTS.
   ALSO...STORMS MAY DEEPEN FARTHER EAST ALONG PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
   BANDS EMANATING FROM THE GULF.

   ..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 02/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...

   LAT...LON   35137991 36137966 37657901 37957761 34757769 33437949
               35137991 

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Page last modified: February 21, 2014
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