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Mesoscale Discussion 141
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0141
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0913 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN TO E-CNTRL FL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 22...

   VALID 211513Z - 211645Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 22
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL MAY DEVELOP S OF WW 22 TOWARDS MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
   APPROACH OF A QLCS AND POTENTIAL TSTM FORMATION SWD INTO E-CNTRL FL.
   AN ADDITIONAL WW AND/OR LOCAL WFO EXTENSION OF WW 22 MAY BECOME
   NECESSARY.

   DISCUSSION...5 KM CAPPI RADAR REFLECTIVITY SUGGESTS THE MOST INTENSE
   PORTION OF AN EXTENSIVE SOUTHEAST QLCS LIES FROM SERN GA TO THE ERN
   FL PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH ABUNDANT ANVIL DEBRIS HAS SLOWED DOWNSTREAM
   INSOLATION...12Z JAX/TBW/XMR RAOBS SUGGEST AIR MASS WILL BECOME
   MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH JUST MODEST AMOUNTS OF HEATING
   THROUGH THE 70S INTO THE LOWER 80S. MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL
   REMAIN NEAR-NEUTRAL...BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COMPOSITE COLD
   FRONT/QLCS...IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL FOR N/S-ORIENTED CONFLUENCE
   BANDS INTO CNTRL FL...SHOULD SUPPORT SUSTENANCE OF TSTMS INTO THE
   AFTERNOON. HODOGRAPHS WILL NOT BE LARGE...BUT WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   AROUND 30 KT PER AREA 12Z RAOBS...THIS SHOULD BE ADEQUATE TO
   MAINTAIN ORGANIZED LINEAR AND MULTICELL STRUCTURES. THESE WILL BE
   CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL GIVEN THE DEGREE OF ANTICIPATED BUOYANCY.

   ..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 02/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29988369 30698281 31218231 31368146 29888094 28598064
               28398103 28418145 28858217 29218300 29988369 

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Page last modified: February 21, 2014
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