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Mesoscale Discussion 141
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0141
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0946 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND FAR SOUTHERN VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 241546Z - 241745Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AT LEAST SOME TORNADO RISK SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE
   THROUGH LATE MORNING/MIDDAY...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN/UPSTATE
   PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. ONE OR MORE TORNADO WATCHES ARE LIKELY
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY FOR WHAT COULD BE A REGIONAL
   TORNADO OUTBREAK THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDING THE 1630Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
   UPDATE...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE PEAK SEVERE PROBABILITIES
   /INCLUDING STRONG TORNADO RISK/ ARE LIKELY TO BE SHIFTED WESTWARD
   ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NC/SOUTHERN VA.

   DISCUSSION...A DEEP CYCLONE CURRENTLY FEATURING A 986 MB SURFACE LOW
   OVER THE TN VALLEY/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
   NORTHEASTWARD...WITH A STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET
   EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS. IN THE WAKE OF
   THICKER CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
   PLAIN...ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SEMI-DISCRETE CONVECTION HAVE BEGIN TO
   INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NC/SC. WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD
   COVER IN THE PRESENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT...THIS CONVECTION
   SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MATURE/INTENSIFY AND BECOME
   INCREASINGLY SURFACE-BASED AS IT OTHERWISE RACES NORTHEASTWARD
   WITHIN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ACCORDINGLY...AT LEAST SOME
   TORNADO RISK COULD EXIST LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN/UPSTATE
   AREAS...WITH A MORE CERTAIN/ROBUST TORNADO RISK...INCLUDING THE
   POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES...DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF
   NC INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL VA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
   NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF THE ERODING WEDGE FRONT/EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT
   WHERE ROBUST LOW-LEVEL/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG
   TORNADOES.

   ..GUYER/GRAMS.. 02/24/2016


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   34388207 35798194 36918014 37007853 35337822 33768071
               34388207 

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