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Mesoscale Discussion 141
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MD 141 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0141
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0354 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

   Areas affected...Northern MS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 190854Z - 191100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated hail and damaging wind gusts possible for the
   next hour or two across the region.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery suggests the storm that just
   crossed the MS/AR border into Bolivar county MS may begin
   diminishing soon, evidenced by a recent southeastward surge in
   forward motion, likely a result of stronger thunderstorm outflow,
   and decreased reflectivity aloft. Additionally, this southeastward
   surge has occurred as storm interacts with the broad and weak front
   draped across the region. Downstream airmass above the boundary
   layer is expected to remain thermodynamically favorable for storm
   persistence, with vertical shear also remaining favorable for
   updraft rotation. As a result, some additional development near this
   storm or re-development of the storm itself is possible. Given the
   elevated nature of the convection, hail appears to be the primary
   threat but downdrafts may occasionally become strong enough to
   penetrate the stable boundary layer.

   ..Mosier/Edwards.. 03/19/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33909090 34329028 34128894 33688827 32948863 33379073

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