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Mesoscale Discussion 142
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0142
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0426 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

   Areas affected...Far Southeast KS...Southwest MO...Western/Central
   AR...Far Eastern OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 190926Z - 191130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated hail possible across the region for the next
   several hours.

   DISCUSSION...Arcing band of elevated convection, extending from far
   southeast KS across western AR and into far northeast TX, continues
   to show occasionally strong updrafts as it quickly moves
   northeastward. This general northeastward progress is expected to
   continue as the strong forcing for ascent along the leading edge of
   the mid-level jet streak continues northeastward. Downstream
   airmass, particularly along the northern extent (i.e. southern MO),
   will gradually become more hostile to convection as cooler
   temperatures and less favorable low/mid-level moisture result in
   less instability. Vertical shear also decreases farther north.
   Despite these negative factors, the strength of the forcing for
   ascent will likely allow for storm persistence and some isolated
   hail will remain possible. Farther south (across AR), prospects for
   storm persistence and occasional hail are relatively higher given
   the more favorable instability and vertical shear.

   ..Mosier/Edwards.. 03/19/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37009503 37359562 38119500 38079307 36639193 34759220
               33699343 33799474 34869482 35939469 37009503 

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