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Mesoscale Discussion 143
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0143
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0152 AM CST Tue Feb 07 2017

   Areas affected...Much of Arkansas into southeast Missouri

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 25...

   Valid 070752Z - 070945Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 25

   SUMMARY...A few storms will be capable of hail through early morning
   across central and northern Arkansas into southeast Missouri.

   DISCUSSION...Several small corridors of storms continue across much
   of northern and central AR this morning, with the strongest cells
   over far northern AR. Here, hail on the order of 0.75" to 1.00"
   diameter appears likely as cells continue to train northeastward.

   Cold air aloft with the midlevel thermal trough is helping to create
   steep lapse rates, favorable for hail and strong updrafts. Storms
   are currently situated on the northern fringe of the instability
   pool to the south, comprised of 1000-1500 J/kg elevated MUCAPE. Lift
   via warm advection/low-level jet is minimal, and forecast to shift
   east of the area with time. Already, a batch of new showers and
   storms has formed across western TN and KY, but remain disorganized
   and not expected to post much of a hail threat. The best chance of
   severe hail should remain over AR, where orographic lift may
   continue to aid storms by helping a cool but moist boundary layer
   reach the LFC. Veering winds in the lower-levels and backing aloft
   with time may eventually lead to storm mode becoming a bit more
   disorganized, but trends will continue to be monitored.

   ..Jewell.. 02/07/2017


   LAT...LON   34929162 34369299 34389351 34589389 34889390 36019327
               37398991 37338949 37048899 36538878 36098889 35578935
               35138986 35019023 34929162 

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