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Mesoscale Discussion 143
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0143
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0533 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OK...SOUTHWEST
   AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MO...AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 6...

   VALID 252233Z - 260000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 6 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WATCH
   6 THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT SOME STRONG
   WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK IN THE
   VICINITY OF THE SFC LOW AND DRYLINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION AND WW 6
   HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO THE SOUTHWEST /REF MCD 0142 FOR MORE DETAILS/.
   ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT IN LOGAN
   COUNTY IN CENTRAL OK. THESE STORMS LIKELY WILL BECOME QUICKLY
   UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.5
   DEGREES C PER KM AND MLCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KM IN CENTRAL TOWARD
   NORTHEAST OK WILL STILL SUPPORT PRODUCTION OF VERY LARGE HAIL.
   FURTHER EAST/NORTHEAST TOWARD E-CENTRAL OK INTO NW AR...INSTABILITY
   BEGINS TO WANE...BUT IS STILL ADEQUATE IN COMBINATION WITH MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5 DEG C PER KM TO SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL. 

   OVER THE LAST 30-60 MINUTES DEVELOPING STORMS IN OKLAHOMA HAVE SHOWN
   A TENDENCY TO QUICKLY BECOME LINEAR. WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR
   IN THE WARM SECTOR TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT NEAR 8 DEG C PER
   KM...ANY STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN SURFACE BASED COULD POSE A DAMAGING
   WIND THREAT IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...A BRIEF
   TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST NEAR THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
   OKLAHOMA WHERE INCREASING...CYCLONICALLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS WERE
   INDICATED PER WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM KINX...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE
   KTLX VWPS.

   ..LEITMAN.. 03/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36869799 37559146 35229142 34549800 36869799 

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Page last modified: March 26, 2015
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