Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 143
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 143 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0143
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0952 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

   Areas affected...north-central and northern AL...northwest GA...far
   southern middle TN

   Concerning...Outlook upgrade 

   Valid 191452Z - 191615Z

   SUMMARY...An upgrade to a Moderate Risk categorical outlook (driven
   by a 15% significant tornado risk) is planned for the 1630Z outlook.

   DISCUSSION...It appears increasingly probable the risk for several
   tornadic supercells will traverse across northern portions of AL
   late this afternoon and through the early evening.  Thunderstorm
   activity will be largely void across a large part of this area
   (north-central AL) prior to peak heating and a moderately unstable
   airmass is expected to develop by mid afternoon.  The arrival of a
   speed max in the mid-levels will correspondingly lead to a marked
   strengthening in low-level flow and increasing hodograph size, which
   will be more favorable for supercells and low-level mesocyclones. 
   Given these factors, confidence has increased such that a 15%
   significant tornado risk and the potential for longer lived
   supercells and damaging tornadoes will focus across north-central
   and northern AL, far southern middle TN beginning during the late
   afternoon/early evening, then moving east into northeast AL and far
   northwest GA later this evening.

   ..Smith.. 03/19/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34918774 35178682 34918515 34168497 33778527 33558610
               33558702 33868795 34368820 34918774 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
Page last modified: March 19, 2018
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities