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Mesoscale Discussion 145
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0145
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1259 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

   Areas affected...for portions of the FL Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 191759Z - 191930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Weak/transient supercells within a moist/adequately
   sheared mesoscale environment may yield an isolated risk for a
   weak/brief tornado this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a few weak/transient supercell
   structures over Bay and Wakulla counties as of 1745z within a
   west-east oriented band of thunderstorms.  The inflow airmass to the
   stronger storms is characterized as moderately buoyant with rich
   low-level moisture (70 degree F surface dewpoint).  Analysis of KEVX
   and KTLH VAD data show strengthening west-southwesterly flow from
   around 20 kt at 2km AGL to 70 kt at 12km.  KTLH show locally backed
   flow ---partially a function of rain-cooled air from the ongoing
   convection--- which is augmenting hodograph size.  Given the
   presence of deeper/sustained updrafts acquiring weak rotation in the
   mid levels within a moist environment, it is not entirely out of the
   question for intermittent low-level rotation to occur over the next
   few hours.  A weak/brief tornado is the primary hazard with this

   ..Smith/Grams.. 03/19/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   29868406 30258571 30558553 30248362 29868406 

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