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Mesoscale Discussion 146
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0146
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0107 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NJ AND PORTIONS OF DELMARVA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 24...26...

   VALID 211907Z - 212000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 24...26...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...RISKS FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE INCREASINGLY
   LIMITED IN SPACE/TIME. ONCE LEADING PORTION OF QLCS EXITS THE
   COAST...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BECOME NEGLIGIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...NRN PORTION OF QLCS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC APPEARS TO
   HAVE PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND WEAKENED IN RADAR REFLECTIVITY OVER THE
   PAST HOUR. THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES AOA 60 DEG F
   WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE JUST AHEAD OF THE QLCS...LIMITED TO THE E
   BY ADVECTION OF COOL SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM THE SHELF WATERS
   NEAR THE NJ/DE COAST AND TO THE N WHERE THE WARM FRONT HAS BECOME
   QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH CNTRL NJ. AN EMBEDDED FLARE-UP OF
   CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS HOUR GIVEN PRESENCE OF
   VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...BUT OVERALL SEVERE RISK SHOULD BE
   DIMINISHING SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 20Z.

   ..GRAMS.. 02/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...

   LAT...LON   40037517 40267492 40407405 40067401 37187583 37487584
               38387541 39187525 40037517 

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Page last modified: February 21, 2014
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