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Mesoscale Discussion 146
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0146
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1018 AM CST Tue Feb 07 2017

   Areas affected...southeast Louisiana through southern Mississippi

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 26...

   Valid 071618Z - 071815Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 26 continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for a few tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind
   will continue from southeast Louisiana through southern Mississippi
   into early to middle afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Late this morning numerous storms are developing from
   southeast LA through southern MS within a corridor of ascent
   associated with a secondary branch of the low-level jet and its
   attendant vorticity maximum moving into western LA. Storms are
   forming along eastern periphery of an axis of moderate instability
   that extends from eastern TX through LA into AR. While low-level
   winds are veered to south southwesterly, 0-1 km storm relative
   helicity is sufficient for a few low-level mesocyclones and
   tornadoes, especially in vicinity of a poorly defined coastal warm
   front across southern LA. Otherwise strong 40-50 kt effective bulk
   shear will continue to promote supercell structures and some bowing
   segments with large hail and damaging wind. 

   Primary severe threat is expected to transpire from late morning
   through the early afternoon across WW 26. However, with time
   tendency will be for the deeper forcing for ascent to move east of
   the instability axis. While some upstream development will be
   possible later this afternoon, subsidence and ewd expansion of eml
   suggest the environment will become increasingly hostile to more
   than isolated thunderstorm development within the corridor of
   greater instability. Some destabilization may occur downstream
   across the central gulf cost area this afternoon where a severe
   threat may evolve.

   ..Dial.. 02/07/2017


   LAT...LON   30108868 29568996 29529104 29889231 30379272 31069257
               31739197 32349066 32428902 31438827 30108868 

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