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Mesoscale Discussion 146
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0146
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0206 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

   Areas affected...Northeast MS...Northern AL...Southern TN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 191906Z - 192030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Tornado watch will be issued by 21z across portions of the
   Mid-South. A few strong tornadoes are possible in addition to large
   hail.

   DISCUSSION...Leading edge of mid-level drying/cooling is progressing
   across the MS Delta region at roughly 35kt. Over the next few hours
   lapse rates should adjust across western TN/northeast MS and deep
   convection is expected to expand in response to this feature.
   Conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for strong supercell
   development as boundary-layer moisture is advancing into northern
   MS/AL with mid 60s surface dew points now evident at TUP into
   Winston county AL.

   Early-day thunderstorm cluster that spread across northern MS is now
   into northern AL and this convection may impede deeper moisture
   surge into the Middle TN region. However, a well-defined and
   increasingly buoyant east-west boundary draped across northern MS/AL
   should provide a focus for potentially tornadic supercells. Shear
   profiles are becoming quite strong across this region and it appears
   discrete storms will evolve over the next few hours in response to
   approaching short-wave trough. Environmental parameters appear
   supportive of potentially long-track tornadoes and this will be
   addressed within the next few hours with a tornado watch.

   ..Darrow/Grams.. 03/19/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   35488846 35488627 34748559 33418601 33268882 34398931
               35488846 

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Page last modified: March 19, 2018
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