MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0147
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0932 PM CST SUN FEB 10 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA...SRN MS...SRN AL...WRN FL
   PANHANDLE...EXTREME SW GA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 33...34...
   
   VALID 110332Z - 110500Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 33...34...CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...EARLIER SUPERCELLS HAVE WEAKENED AND MOST NEW STORM
   DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE RAIN-COOLED
   BOUNDARY FROM SE LA/SRN MS ACROSS SRN AL.  THUS...THE TORNADO AND
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS DIMINISHING /ASIDE FROM A NARROW CORRIDOR IN
   SE MS/SW AL/...WITH TRAINING CONVECTION AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
   BECOMING MORE OF A CONCERN.
   
   DISCUSSION...THE INTENSE SUPERCELLS EARLIER THIS EVENING ACROSS SE
   MS/SW AL HAVE WEAKENED...AND WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT HAS LIKEWISE
   DIMINISHED AS SURFACE COOLING COMMENCES.  ADDITIONALLY...THE LLJ HAS
   VEERED GRADUALLY FROM SWLY TO WSWLY AS SPEEDS SLOWLY WEAKEN...AND
   THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.  STILL...THE COMBINATION OF
   VERTICAL SHEAR AND BUOYANCY REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME TORNADO RISK
   ALONG THE RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY...PRIMARILY FROM LAMAR COUNTY MS TO
   CLARKE COUNTY AL/.
   
   IN THE LONGER TERM...THE SCENARIO IS BECOMING LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
   LONG-LIVED SEVERE STORMS/TORNADOES...AND MORE SUPPORTIVE OF TRAINING
   CONVECTION ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE COMPOSITE
   BOUNDARY NOW FROM OZR TO BETWEEN MOB/GZH TO NEAR BTR.  THE UPSTREAM
   FEED OF WEAK-MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM SRN LA WILL SUPPORT SOME RISK
   FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING GUSTS WITH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
   STORMS N OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT THAT RISK WILL BE MORE MARGINAL WITH
   TIME AND PROBABLY WILL NOT WARRANT ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCHES AFTER
   05Z.  MEANWHILE...THE STORMS PROGRESSING FROM SE AL INTO SW GA ARE
   MOVING E OF THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WELL BACK TO THE W/SW...AND THE
   STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
   
   ..THOMPSON/KERR.. 02/11/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
   
   LAT...LON   31178466 30908570 30708700 30638829 30379007 30359096
               30439132 30789107 31518936 31768854 31938708 31738632
               31708534 31808474 31678451 31418446 31178466