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Mesoscale Discussion 147
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0147
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1120 AM CST Tue Feb 07 2017

   Areas affected...Southern Alabama through the western Florida

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 071720Z - 071915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Threat for severe storms including a couple of tornadoes,
   damaging wind and hail is expected to increase over the central Gulf
   Coast region into the afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Broken band of storms continues from central and
   southwest AL into southern LA. Activity is developing along warm
   conveyor belt in association with forcing for ascent attending a
   progressive shortwave trough. A poorly defined warm front was
   located along the gulf coast area, and this boundary may move
   further inland as a secondary branch of the southwesterly low-level
   jet shifts east through the central Gulf Coast region today. Primary
   limiting factor in this region is marginal instability, and diabatic
   warming of the boundary layer remains limited by widespread
   multi-layer clouds. However, theta-e advection accompanying the
   low-level jet will contribute to at least modest destabilization
   which (in conjunction with sufficient (40-45 KT) effective bulk
   shear) suggests storms may eventually begin to organize with both
   supercells and bowing segments possible. While low-level hodographs
   are not particularly large, 0-1 km storm relative helicity will be
   sufficient for a few low-level mesocyclones and a couple of
   tornadoes. Otherwise, damaging wind and some hail may also occur
   with the stronger storms.

   ..Dial/Thompson.. 02/07/2017


   LAT...LON   30318813 31478820 32058727 31538530 30328547 30438615
               30428689 30318813 

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