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Mesoscale Discussion 148
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0148
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0155 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NC/SC TO SOUTHERN VA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 26...27...

   VALID 241955Z - 242130Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 26...27...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE TORNADO RISK SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE/SPREAD
   NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NC/SC WITHIN TORNADO
   WATCH 26...WHICH CONTINUES UNTIL 00Z/7PM EST. THIS INCLUDES THE
   POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG TORNADO /EF2+/ OR TWO ESPECIALLY ACROSS NC
   /AND INTO VA/ PORTIONS OF THE WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...AS OF 245 PM EST/1930Z...A WARM FRONT/ABATING WEDGE
   FRONT EFFECTIVELY EXTENDS FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA SOUTHWESTWARD
   TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VA /NEAR FARMVILLE/ TO NEAR THE BORDER OF
   VA/NORTHWEST NC NEAR THE DANVILLE VA VICINITY. WITHIN THE WARM
   SECTOR TO THE SOUTH OF THE WEDGE FRONT...A NNE/SSW-ORIENTED BAND OF
   STORMS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY /AS PER LIGHTNING TRENDS AND
   MRMS ATTRIBUTES SUCH AS CAPPI/ AS IT APPROACHES THE NC PIEDMONT/FAR
   SOUTH-CENTRAL VA. THE COINCIDES WITH A REGIONALLY MAXIMIZED CORRIDOR
   OF 3-5MB/2-HR PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT/CENTRAL
   VA...WITH A TENDENCY FOR A BACKING /TO SOUTHEASTERLY/ OF LOW-LEVEL
   WINDS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. SAMPLING A RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER IN CONTRAST TO 12Z...A SPECIAL 18Z OBSERVED SOUNDING
   FROM GREENSBORO NC FEATURED AN UNINHIBITED/MODESTLY UNSTABLE
   BOUNDARY LAYER WITH VERY STRONG 50-60 KT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
   WITHIN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL. LATEST WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM RALEIGH
   FEATURES NEARLY 400 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
   A STRONG TORNADO /EF2+/ RISK...WHICH SEEMS LIKELY TO INCREASE INTO
   THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

   ..GUYER.. 02/24/2016


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   33578085 34598051 36817933 36617775 35127744 34057813
               33667998 33578085 

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