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Mesoscale Discussion 148
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0148
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1222 PM CST Tue Feb 07 2017

   Areas affected...northern Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 071822Z - 072045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Threat for large hail might evolve over northern
   Mississippi later today. Given the conditional nature of the threat,
   any WW issuance later this afternoon will depend on convective

   DISCUSSION...Storms currently developing over northern MS are moving
   atop a stable boundary layer within a marginal thermodynamic
   environment and should pose minimal severe risk.

   In wake of widespread morning clouds and convection, the boundary
   layer will destabilize over northern Mississippi which (in
   conjunction with cold air aloft accompanying a thermal trough north
   of a progressive upper jet axis) will result in 1000-1500 J/kg
   MLCAPE this afternoon. However, the primary corridor of forcing for
   ascent will begin to shift east of the more unstable portion of warm
   sector. Subsidence and warming aloft in wake of the shortwave trough
   suggests additional thunderstorm development could become
   problematic. Nevertheless, at least isolated storms may redevelop by
   mid afternoon in pre-frontal warm sector as the boundary layer
   destabilizes. While vertical shear will decrease with time, the
   thermodynamic environment will support a risk for large hail,
   conditional upon thunderstorm initiation.

   ..Dial/Thompson.. 02/07/2017


   LAT...LON   34348881 33778850 32848908 32819079 33659068 34298979

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