Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 148
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 148 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0148
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1222 PM CST Tue Feb 07 2017

   Areas affected...northern Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 071822Z - 072045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Threat for large hail might evolve over northern
   Mississippi later today. Given the conditional nature of the threat,
   any WW issuance later this afternoon will depend on convective
   trends.

   DISCUSSION...Storms currently developing over northern MS are moving
   atop a stable boundary layer within a marginal thermodynamic
   environment and should pose minimal severe risk.

   In wake of widespread morning clouds and convection, the boundary
   layer will destabilize over northern Mississippi which (in
   conjunction with cold air aloft accompanying a thermal trough north
   of a progressive upper jet axis) will result in 1000-1500 J/kg
   MLCAPE this afternoon. However, the primary corridor of forcing for
   ascent will begin to shift east of the more unstable portion of warm
   sector. Subsidence and warming aloft in wake of the shortwave trough
   suggests additional thunderstorm development could become
   problematic. Nevertheless, at least isolated storms may redevelop by
   mid afternoon in pre-frontal warm sector as the boundary layer
   destabilizes. While vertical shear will decrease with time, the
   thermodynamic environment will support a risk for large hail,
   conditional upon thunderstorm initiation.

   ..Dial/Thompson.. 02/07/2017


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   34348881 33778850 32848908 32819079 33659068 34298979
               34348881 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: February 07, 2017
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities