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Mesoscale Discussion 149
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0149
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0335 AM CST SUN FEB 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA...SRN MS...SRN AL THROUGH THE FL PANHANDLE
   AND SWRN GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 230935Z - 231200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS MAY POSE A RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH
   THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM SERN LA THROUGH SRN MS...SRN AL INTO
   THE FL PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SWRN GA. OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR
   SUFFICIENT FOR A WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE
   CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY.
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA INDICATED A TENDENCY FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO
   DESTABILIZE NWD WITH TIME WITH MUCAPE FROM 500-1000 J/KG. THIS NWD
   DESTABILIZATION TREND APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THETA-E
   ADVECTION ALONG A SWLY LLJ AND BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
   ELEVATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS ZONE OF ASCENT
   AND DESTABILIZATION NEXT FEW HOURS. 30-35 KT VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH
   THE LOWER HALF OF THE CLOUD LAYER...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   MODEST CAPE WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR WEAK UPDRAFT ROTATION AND
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS ACTIVITY PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH THE EARLY
   MORNING.

   ..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 02/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29648450 29908670 29848784 29688858 29199063 29939147
               31578904 31858678 31018440 29988361 29648450 

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Page last modified: February 23, 2014
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