MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0149
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0218 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TX TOWARD THE MIDDLE TX COAST
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 110818Z - 110945Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...ISOLATED BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TX TOWARD THE MIDDLE TX COAST.
   
   DISCUSSION...STRONG TSTMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS
   SOUTH TX...ROUGHLY FROM THE RIO GRANDE RIVER NORTH OF LAREDO TX
   EASTWARD TOWARD THE I-37 VICINITY. THESE STORMS ARE ELEVATED /LIKELY
   BASED AROUND 850-900 MB/...AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THAT WAY...TO THE
   NORTH OF A NEAR-COASTAL SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONSIDERING THE 00Z
   OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM DEL RIO/CORPUS CHRISTI/BROWNSVILLE TX...A
   DEGREE OF MID-LEVEL MOISTENING AND PROXIMITY OF STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES ARE LIKELY SUPPORTING MUCAPE OF AT LEAST 1000 J/KG. AND
   GIVEN RELATIVELY STRONG SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER /50+
   KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR ESTIMATED PER REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS/...ELEVATED
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. SUCH A
   THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS SOUTH TX INITIALLY...BUT MAY SPREAD TOWARD
   THE MIDDLE TX COAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
   
   ..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 02/11/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...
   
   LAT...LON   27959992 28849877 29639630 28979574 27399892 27959992