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Mesoscale Discussion 150
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0150
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0943 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE NC COAST AND OUTER BANKS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 261443Z - 261545Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN INCREASING BUT LOW PROBABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
   RISK WILL OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE NC COAST AND OUTER BANKS OVER
   THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  THE RISK APPEARS MARGINAL AND A WATCH WILL
   LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK
   TROUGH/CONFLUENCE ZONE INVOF CAPE FEAR NWD INTO PARTS OF E-CNTRL NC.
   WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ARE INHIBITING STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND LOWER
   60S DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK BUOYANCY PER THE 12Z MHX
   RAOB /700 J PER KG MUCAPE/.  DESPITE A MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
   SETUP...VEERING AND STRENGTHENING WINDS WITH HEIGHT ARE SUPPORTIVE
   OF UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION.  KMHX SINGLE SITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A
   SUPERCELL 40 MI SE ILM AROUND 14Z BUT THIS STORM HAS SINCE WEAKENED
   AS OF 1435Z.  NONETHELESS...THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE REGION AND AN IMPLIED MESOLOW-LIKE FEATURE
   PER MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM
   CAPABLE PERHAPS OF A STRONG WIND GUST.  THE STRONG STORM RISK WILL
   LIKELY CEASE ONCE THE DISTURBANCE EXITS INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC.

   ..SMITH/MEAD.. 03/26/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MHX...

   LAT...LON   34657695 35707562 35207557 34657695 

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Page last modified: March 26, 2015
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