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Mesoscale Discussion 150
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0150
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0244 PM CST Tue Feb 07 2017

   Areas affected...Southern Alabama through the central Florida
   panhandle and southwest GA

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 27...

   Valid 072044Z - 072215Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 27 continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes
   persists in the southeast half of WW 27. Trends are being monitored
   for another WW that would include the central and eastern FL
   panhandle into southwest GA.

   DISCUSSION...As of mid afternoon a cluster of storms persists from
   southern AL into the western FL panhandle. Activity is moving east
   at around 30 kt. A few semi-organized structures including bowing
   segments and embedded meso-vortices continue to be observed. A wswly
   low-level jet is moving east through the central and northeast Gulf
   Coast region in association with a mid-level jet attending a
   progressive shortwave trough. Thus the vertical shear will remain
   supportive of organized storms. 

   Some destabilization has also occurred downstream from the line into
   the central FL panhandle where diabatic warming of the boundary
   layer and modest theta-e advection have contributed to 1000 J/kg
   MLCAPE. This environment may support an organized severe threat as
   storms continue east, but given the transition to a dominant linear
   mode, damaging wind should be the primary threat. However a couple
   of tornadoes with embedded supercells or meso-vortices remains

   ..Dial/Thompson.. 02/07/2017


   LAT...LON   30418654 30278788 30588830 31588709 31628542 31738385
               30338350 29678490 30418654 

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