MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0150
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1158 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE...FAR SE AL...SW GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 111758Z - 111930Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
   ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE EXTENDING NWD INTO SW GA AS CELLS GRADUALLY
   BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE FOR DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS CONDITIONAL
   UPON AN INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY.
   
   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
   SLOWLY SWD ACROSS FAR SE LA WITH THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS
   THE FL PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
   BOUNDARY WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR THE GA-AL
   STATE-LINE WHERE SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S. AS SFC
   TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...INSTABILITY WILL
   INCREASE WITH SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS SHOWING SBCAPE VALUES
   PEAKING INTO THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE TO THE WEST OF TALLAHASSEE.
   INCREASING INSTABILITY ALONG WITH 50 TO 60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   EVIDENT ON REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL
   SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING
   AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES ABOVE THE SFC...THE MAIN THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 02/11/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...
   
   LAT...LON   29848415 29548479 29588544 29958585 30238652 30348708
               30568731 30878720 31108669 31308589 31498472 31298340
               30758329 29848415