MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0151
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0101 PM CST MON FEB 11 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EAST TX...LA...SW MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 111901Z - 112030Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR TEXT BOX INFORMATION
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY PERSIST ACROSS THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
   MARGINAL WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. WW
   ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE EXPECTED MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
   THREAT.
   
   DISCUSSION...SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING
   ACROSS CNTRL LA WHERE A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT ON
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A STRONG SFC INVERSION IS PRESENT ACROSS THE
   MCD AREA ACCORDING TO THE MORNING OBSERVED SOUNDINGS. IN SPITE OF
   THIS...MUCAPE VALUES IN CNTRL LA AND SW MS COULD BE IN THE 500 TO
   1000 J/KG RANGE AS IS SUGGESTED BY OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. THIS COMBINED
   WITH 70 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR EVIDENT ON THE FORT POLK LA WSR-88D VWP
   SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH
   HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT DUE TO THE STRONG DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR AND SOMEWHAT STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR 700 MB...A FEW STRONG WIND
   GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR.
   
   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 02/11/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
   
   LAT...LON   31069415 30679446 30179426 30189332 30549037 30848944
               31388938 31629026 31269309 31069415