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Mesoscale Discussion 152
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0152
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0315 PM CST SUN FEB 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL FL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 232115Z - 232245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOCALIZED SEVERE RISK SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 00Z AS
   MERGING OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS/SEA BREEZE CONTINUE TO YIELD
   TRANSIENT/WEAK SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

   DISCUSSION...21Z OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS PLACED A COMPOSITE
   FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS PASCO TO SRN VOLUSIA COUNTIES...WITH
   A 1015 MB SURFACE CYCLONE OVER NWRN SEMINOLE COUNTY AND A CONFLUENCE
   BAND SWD INTO POLK COUNTY. THE COMPOSITE FRONT/OUTFLOW HAS
   ACCELERATED SWD IN THE PAST HALF HOUR AND HAS AIDED IN SEVERAL
   UPDRAFTS FORMING ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY...AMIDST A TEMPERATURE
   GRADIENT AROUND 20-25 DEG F. LOW-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN ANEMIC WITHIN
   THE WARM SECTOR /0-1 KM SHEAR AOB 10 KT IN MLB VWP DATA/...BUT LOCAL
   AUGMENTATION OF SHEAR ALONG BOUNDARIES/N OF THE FRONT MAY CONTINUE
   TO YIELD TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS THE REGION LIES ON THE
   FRINGE OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL W/SWLYS. PRIMARY RISKS SHOULD REMAIN IN
   THE FORM OF LOCALIZED SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. A WEAK TORNADO
   IS POSSIBLE...BUT TRANSIENT/MODEST NATURE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
   SHOULD DETER THIS RISK.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 02/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

   LAT...LON   29098155 29148102 28118052 27778066 27718128 27758165
               28128174 28568202 28828183 29018158 29098155 

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Page last modified: February 23, 2014
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