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Mesoscale Discussion 153
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0153
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0512 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA...DC...CNTRL/NRN MD...THROUGH SERN PA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 262212Z - 270015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST
   FROM NRN VA...NRN MD INTO SERN PA THROUGH ABOUT 01Z. THREAT IS NOT
   EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN PA SWWD
   THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN APPALACHIANS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM
   CNTRL NJ WWD INTO ECNTRL PA WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT. WARM
   SECTOR IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   IN A NARROW CORRIDOR EAST OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE DIABATIC WARMING
   OF THE SFC LAYER IS CONTRIBUTING TO 500 J/KG MLCAPE. THUNDERSTORMS
   ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT FROM SERN PA INTO
   NRN VA AS THIS BOUNDARY INTERCEPTS THE INSTABILITY AXIS. STRONG
   VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT
   ROTATION AND BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG
   WIND GUSTS NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED BY THE
   MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

   ..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 03/26/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   39777707 40397626 40397573 39787571 39107629 38527764
               38937797 39777707 

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Page last modified: March 27, 2015
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