MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0153
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1143 PM CST MON FEB 11 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN LA...SRN MS...SWRN AL...AND THE WRN FL
   PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 120543Z - 120715Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...SOME FURTHER INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS IS
   POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL
   IS LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW TO NEGLIGIBLE.
   
   DISCUSSION...A SLOW CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION AND INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE OF STORMS DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
   LOUISIANA APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF ENHANCED
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK EASTWARD PROGRESSING SHORT
   WAVE IMPULSE.  THIS LIFT...COUPLED WITH MOISTURE RETURN ON 20-30 KT
   SOUTHERLY FLOW...IS CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION ABOVE A 1+
   KILOMETER DEEP COOL/STABLE SURFACE BASED LAYER...TO THE NORTH OF A
   STALLED SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE GULF COAST.  SHEAR WITHIN THE
   ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER IS STRONG...WHICH MAY ENHANCE INDIVIDUAL
   CELLS...AND PERHAPS CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AS
   IT SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO
   SOUTHERN ALABAMA BETWEEN NOW AND 08-09Z.  ALTHOUGH SOME FURTHER
   INTENSIFICATION DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION...CAPE DOES NOT
   APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF MUCH BEYOND MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL AT BEST.  DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE DUE TO THE
   STABLE NATURE OF THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER...AND THE GENERAL WEAKNESS
   OF THE FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1 TO 2 KILOMETERS ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.
   
   ..KERR/THOMPSON.. 02/12/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
   
   LAT...LON   31109060 31918929 32228866 32608710 31968626 30538772
               29889109 29939152 31109060