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Mesoscale Discussion 155
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0155
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0539 PM CST Tue Feb 07 2017

   Areas affected...A small part of southeast MS and southwest AL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 072339Z - 080115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A localized severe risk may spread southeastward across
   parts of the area during the next couple of hours. The anticipated
   eventual decrease in severe risk and limited spatial extent of this
   potential are presently expected to preclude Watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...A couple of ongoing supercell storms (with recent
   tornado and severe hail reports) in east-central MS are expected to
   continue spreading southeastward into the early evening hours.
   Large-scale subsidence, combined with eventual nocturnal
   stabilization of the boundary layer, should tend to restrict the
   temporal duration of the severe risk. Nevertheless, well-established
   dynamic perturbation pressure gradient forces attendant to the
   ongoing rotating updrafts may allow sustenance of this activity for
   a couple more hours. Sufficient buoyancy/shear will exist for all
   severe hazards in the short term on an isolated/relatively brief

   ..Cohen/Hart.. 02/07/2017


   LAT...LON   31528882 31808894 31898844 31818809 31448817 31308850

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